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In today's video:
Yesterday’s price crash could have been triggered by a misunderstanding over price data
Ethereum co-creator Steven Nervayoff weighs in on how 2018 could be Ethereum’s big year despite China getting sour on miners
Today’s episode is brought you to by the DADA Success Academy that I have partnered with to run 2 live cryptocurrency events in London this February. Check out those events if you want to meet me in person by clicking the link below:
https://dadasuccessacademy.com/realtalk-evening/
Story - Market Crash Triggered By A Misunderstanding?
https://www.coinigy.com/main/markets/BITF/BTC/USD
Let’s first revisit the technical analysis we did each day last week.
Last week we were doing really well, and the last time we spoke about this Bitcoin had broken above $16,500 and the price was testing it for support.
Then on Sunday the 7th, support failed and then yesterday we broke the low of Sunday to end up with this bearish engulfing pattern that went down to a low of $13,760.
As you know my current short term position started at $12,500 but if it hadn’t this crash would have been a buying of the dip for me.
By the end of the day yesterday we came back above the 38% fib level which is at 14,375.
This may well just have been normal market movements and a failing of support but there’s a possibility the market got spooked.
If we head back to coinmarket cap and click on the price of Bitcoin, this is how coinmarketcap determines the price to display.
My understanding is that they take an average of all these price feeds, from all these difference exchanges and that’s what they show on the home page.
But notice that sometimes they display this asterisk next to the price.
If you scroll right down to the bottom of the page you’ll see this means they are excluding that price from their calculation.
It’s no surprise to me that the price they have chosen to exclude is Bitcoin against the Korean Won because as you can see here, it’s several thousand dollars higher than everywhere else.
If they included this in the average it would artificially pull the average up.
Apparently yesterday they decided to suddenly begin excluding this price from the calculation which made it look like the average price had suddenly dropped, which at that time it hadn’t.
That may have triggered some selling which then fed on itself to cause a price crash.
This is to be expected in a market that has a high population of amateaur investors.
With so many people relying on coinmarketcap for price data means that if there’s a discrepancy it has far reaching consequences.
https://www.coinigy.com/main/markets/BITF/BTC/USD
This is why I much prefer to use Coinigy and get price feeds directly from the largest exchanges like Bitfinex.
You can sign up for a free 30 day trial of Coinigy at the link in the video description. It is a referral link so if you decide to upgrade to a paid account, I’ll be paid some commission for that.
https://www.coinigy.com/?r=16171fe8
Story - 2018 Could Be The Year Of Ethereum
https://coinjournal.net/ethereum-pioneer-early-contributor-says-eth-triple-2018/
I was originally going to criticise this headline because they don’t provide evidence that Steven actually said the price would triple, however…
After watching just 40 seconds of this recording of the CNBC clip, yes he does say “we could see a tripling of the price before the end of the year”.
And this guy was on the founding team of Ethereum which is no doubt why CBNC had him on their Fast Money show.
So why would Ethereum potentially triple this year?
Well Steven says this in the context of what he sees as an exponential increase in the number of projects being built on Ethereum.
The way I think about it is that demand for the Ethereum token primarily comes from applications that want to run on the Ethereum network.
In order to use the Ethereum networks resources you have to pay a fee in Ether.
The more transactions, the more Ether people will have to buy to pay those fees.
So the more apps that are built on Ethereum, the more everyone will need to buy and hold some Ether to run their programs.
That is the fundamental value of the Ethereum token. Yes there’s speculation on top of that to reach the current price, however the floor on how far the ethereum price can fall gets higher and higher every time a sustainable app is launched.
So that’s my long form interpretation of what Steven is saying.
And we know that there are dozens if not hundreds of apps that are going to launch on Ethereum because most of them have done their ICO in 2017 and are now busy building their apps and moving towards a full release.
If just a fraction of the apps that did an ICO last year become large scale apps, that means a significant spike in demand for Ether to run those apps.
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