Objective

We need to be vigilant, and the crisis can be triggered by a trivial matter at any time----may be the boundary of a market is broken, may be the trade friction is intensified, may be an area of emergency. The crisis may happen when you least expect it, maybe tomorrow, like the Pearl Harbor of the weekend ...

#1

Although every day there are bad, predictive things happen, but it does not seem to affect people's optimism, which is somewhat similar to the weekend in Pearl Harbor.

It may be unfounded, a deep sense of impending crisis has always kept me focused on where the risk would pop up and become the trigger for a huge explosion.

In previous articles and on various occasions, I expressed a concern----a world-wide crisis is coming closer to us, perhaps tomorrow, as we are already at the end of a long cycle of prosperity and at the tipping point of a cyclical reversal.

This cycle is not just an economic cycle, it is also a financial cycle, a political cycle, a wealth cycle.

We are in the midst of a global economic and financial crisis that has been at a time of constant economic and structural conflict, and we are in a period of populist and restless politicians ...

The many problems of this crisis are almost impossible to resolve without major turbulence in the economy----the world.

So in 2018-2019, perhaps a crisis comparable to 1929 will come again (rather than in 2008), even if the central banks are prepared enough for this, the market will not be shifted by human willings ...

#2

Although I do not want this to happen, I am more inclined to be unavoidable----at least a violent jolt.

Since the 1980 's, due to global development, it let us enjoy low inflation and overall growth, even if there are small crises, but there seems not to hurt the long term growth. However, such a good day may have come to an end, and some key risks are constantly tapping the fragile tipping point, with a little more power that could trigger a collapse crisis at any moment.