So I've been wondering whether or not I should make political/economics posts on this blog, it's mainly for my developer stuff but I like having a conversation and chatting to people about this stuff as well just to get a gauge on various things happening out there, I don't see why I can't have both on here and I think it could be a bit of fun. Let me know perhaps if you think this is alright? I wouldn't mind separating politics/economics talk into a separate account if that would make people happy.
You all may have noticed especially with STEEM there's a massive clusterfuck going on right now in the altcoin market. That doesn't surprise me in the slightest, historically what happens is that as the Bitcoin price goes up, I think lots of whales holding their altcoins and then they massively sell off in a rush to sell their coins for 'real' cash as the price goes up so they can cash out and spend their money as they like.
I thought at first that this was just another typical price rise where Bitcoin was getting pumped up and then it would settle below $1000 but then I remembered the French and German elections and started looking around at news articles related to that.
So it should be absolutely no surprise to anyone in regards to the French elections that Le Pen winning could pose some serious problems for the EU as France is one of the biggest contributing member states next to Germany. However the idea of her winning alone isn't really enough to cause chaos just yet, but it seems that traders have gotten a lot wiser after Brexit and Trump and seem to be preparing themselves for the possibility of a Le Pen win.
The biggest blow to the EU could well be if Merkel loses, she's very unpopular in Germany it seems, Le Pen would certainly be a shock, but not enough to completely break apart the organisation. So yes, I honestly think that there is a high possibility of the EU completely falling into disarray with these two elections happening this year. This will definitely cause the pound to go up as all the traders out there and others in the EU seek out safe havens and what's more interesting is that I think precisely because the EU is starting to go the UK economy is actually growing as people start seeking the UK out for trade and abandoning the EU who would try to penalise everyone who attempts to leave or trade outside their trading bloc anyway.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-idUKKBN1610WI
So how does Bitcoin factor into all of this? Well my theory is that not only will some people be wanting to diversify and also look at Bitcoin as an alternative safe haven. It could well be that people from the EU are using Bitcoin as a way of transferring their cash to pounds easily, though I guess it just depends on the individual and what their circumstances are.
So I would say, especially if Le Pen wins, avoid the Euro like the plague and like before, I think it's a good idea actually not to sell your Bitcoin despite the high prices depending on what you'd be selling it in. I don't know about the pound and the dollar these days because we've got some big unknowns with Brexit and Trump but it's still worth being wary about paper currencies in general. Some countries could well survive this fine depending on how well the governments cope and maybe even flourish, but we'll have to wait and see in a lot of cases.
Brace yourselves, we've got a shit storm ahead of us.
Disclaimer: I thought I'd just post a small disclaimer in case anybody gets ideas, I am not a professional trader I am somebody just very interested in economics that occasionally makes money off Bitcoin. Consult a proper professional before you decide to consider investing in any of the things I've mentioned.