The extent of mode shift induced by any transport initiative is often an essential input to an economic appraisal. Transport modelling is often time consuming and expensive. Transport modelling is often not available at the earlier planning stages and sometimes not available at all for some projects. To address the often lack of availability of data from sophisticated transport models, a simple methodology to determine mode shift has been developed. This paper explains the methodology to determine mode shift and the applications for this methodology to CBA models.
The methodology applies triangle distributions of perceived costs for travel for various modes. The interaction of these triangles determines the number of commuters utilizing each mode from the calculated integrals of the triangle distributions (two linear functions). The triangles were constructed using maximum, minimum and mean values for perceived costs. Triangle distributions were selected mostly due to the ease of manipulation using maximum, minimum and mean values.
The triangle distribution methodology has been applied to a non-infrastructure model (TRIMM). This model was designed to evaluate non-infrastructure solutions for road and transport. Detailed modelling is rarely available for non-infrastructure solutions. The application of the triangle distribution methodology was deemed an appropriate solution for the TRIMM model considering the success of many non-infrastructure solutions for transport relies upon mode shifts. The application of the triangle distribution methodology can potentially extend beyond just transport and road projects to any analysis of behaviour that can be defined within a set of parameters.
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Here is the reference and link for the full paper.
Davies, W. (2014), Calculation of Transport Mode Shift in the Absence of Complex Transport Models, 26th ARRB Conference (Paper and presentation), available at: http://114.111.144.247/Presto/content/Detail.aspx?ctID=MjE1ZTI4YzctZjc1YS00MzQ4LTkyY2UtMDJmNTgxYjg2ZDA5&rID=NDE2Ng&qcf=&ph=VHJ1ZQ&bckToL=VHJ1ZQ==&
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