You might have noticed the sky is falling!
We have several of the least liked presidential candidates ever, the EU is taking it's first steps onto a very steep downhill incline, and that one weird guy you know keeps mumbling about guns, food stashes, and gold (or more likely for the Steem crowd, Bitcoin!). What's happening??
Wealth production is shifting...
...from labor to capital. Automation is increasing. Self-driving cars are on the horizon, burger joints all have touch screens, and you can now get through a full grocery store visit without interacting with any humans whatsoever. As we become more efficient at producing stuff we need less and less people to do it.
Today capital-produced wealth (stuff made with other stuff [land, robots, factories, etc]) is increasing and labor-produced wealth (stuff made by people) is decreasing. So working hard isn't enough any more. Now you have to already be wealthy already in order to get wealth.
This leads to increasing wealth disparity and...
Populism
It is no longer a government of the people, by the people, and for the people, but a government of Wall Street, by Wall Street, and for Wall Street.
-- Mary Elizabeth Lease, 1980-ish
When people perceive that the system is rigged, they look for something new, something to bring them a measure of fairness. This produces a populist movement. Populism is just what it sounds like: a movement that's about the people. Common people who are struggling because they have nothing, and the elites have everything. This leads in two directions: socialism and fascism. When things get bad with socialism, the government says, "We have to take over all these greedy businesses." and then you get Venezuela. When things are bad with fascism the government says, "Those guys are making everything terrible for you. We're gonna really crack down on those guys." and then eventually everyone's a criminal.
Global economy is based on debt
In 1971, the USA couldn't pay for the Vietnam war, so it printed a bunch of money. After that world governments decoupled their currencies from gold altogether. Now, a company called The Federal Reserve, together with banks, produces money by creating debt. Normally, the Federal Reserve can use its control over interest rates to keep the economy stable. It makes money easier to borrow by lowering interest rates, and it discourages borrowing by raising interest rates. We're enjoying America's fourth longest period of continual economic growth ever.
Recession is overdue
Here's the thing. Recessions suck, but they serve a purpose. When there's a recession, it forces inefficient businesses out of business. It frees up badly invested money and makes room for competitors. We are long overdue for a recession, but no government wants to actually let it happen. The longer we put it off (by encouraging borrowing with low interest rates) the worse it's going to get. We're just feeding money to those inefficient businesses. But the catch is: you can only lower interest rates so far. When you get to zero, the only thing left after that is to figure out some way to actually penalize people for NOT lending out their money. This is called a negative interest rate, and it's happening today in Sweden and Denmark.
Economic growth is slowing, and the Federal Reserve has run out of room to maneuver; interest rates now are basically zero. In fact it's gone on like this for so long that now they are saying they're going to try RAISING interest rates, just to see if that helps anything. But they keep finding any excuse they can at the last minute to not raise them.
So, this is all really scary
You can be prepared for a recession. Eliminate your wasteful spending. Try your hardest to reduce your personal debt (interest rates go up after a recession). Make sure you have lots of STEEM and other assets that have value independently of the dollar. Maybe start a garden, that way even if you don't have money you'll have food. It'll be here in a couple years, but we'll come out the other side ready for competition and fresh new business opportunities. I'm not saying you need buckets of ammunition and three year's supply of dry goods... but by planning ahead for scarce times you can really do your future self a huge favor.
Further reading:
- Wealth production shift: Rise of the robots: what will the future of work look like? (The Guardian)
- Debt economy: List of economic expansions in the United States (Wikipedia), The Debt-Based Economy (Workable Economics). Also Nixon Shock (Wikipedia) and Is the Federal Reserve System a Governmental or a Privately controlled organization? (monetary.org)
- Populism: Capital and Labor (American Yawp)
- Recession: Why We Need a Recession (mises.org)