Here we are again...
The dictator that we installed as a puppet leader decided he didn't want to be a puppet after all. Sorry Pinocchio, you don't get to be a real boy. The propaganda machine is spouting some nonsense about illegal drugs being imported into USA. "We are protecting the American public by ousting this dictator [that we installed]." Of course that's nonsense and the answer is always the spoils of war. What are we stealing from them?
Well Venezuela happens to be the last bastion of countries with huge oil reserves that aren't directly allied with my humble and freedom-loving country. They also have billions of dollars worth of gold currently frozen in some UK bank for whatever reason, so it will be interesting to see how we steal that as well. Gold and Oil have always been the primary drivers of war. Tanks don't get good gas mileage.
Breakout promised... breakout delivered.
Four days ago I did some mini-analysis on the market and determined that the current low volatility would obviously lead to some kind of explosive move. Looks like it's time to touch the MA(100) line near $100k. Can't say I'm happy about how we ended up here... committing war crimes to make number go up without congressional approval and all that. Then again it's not like congressional approval matters when the stated reason for violence is an obvious and blatant lie to garner what limited public approval they can at this point. Although I did see a random clip of Trump saying it was our oil to begin with and we are just "stealing" it back which was kind of funny. Watching the fall of Rome in real time is more entertaining that I thought it should be. To be fair... it's a dark comedy.
Nothing but golden crosses on the horizon.
The move happened right when the MA(100) crossed over $100k... as predicted... which is just so weird to be honest. It feels like everything to do with this arbitrary 6-digit unit-bias number ends up being significant somehow. I wonder what it will be like at $1M. Probably very similar I would imagine. Of course the dollar itself might only be worth half as much at that point. Who wants to take bets on wages doubling by that time? I'll give 10 to 1 odds to anyone who thinks they might. Any takers?
2026 a good year for risk-on?
It's very difficult to answer a question like this because the economy hasn't looked good since long before covid 2020. It's all smoke and mirrors. AI looks like it's on the ropes, but also everyone is adopting it. Yield curve always looks piss poor. Central banking is an unsustainable Ponzi by design. And yet the market always finds a way to breakout and move higher in the face of constant systemic threat.
2026 was supposed to be a bear market year for crypto, but then again 2025 was supposed to be an absolutely Goliath bull market year, which it was not in any way shape or form. The script has been flipped and we are flying blind on this one. Again, $100k is very much on the table even in bearish scenarios.
That being said the trendline traders are once again optimistic now that the previous trend has been broken and we are moving up again. To be fair there is no uptrend in place because there hasn't been enough time, but the chart does look like it just recovered from the devastating 10/10 leverage attack. Many signs point to optimistic outcome... and even if not we still stand above the massive support range blue-band I was calling the "liquidity void" a year back. It's not a void anymore but it is still a highly significant range to pay attention to even after all this time.
Conclusion
We started a war and markets respond positively.
World Wars are off the table.
There's no profit in that.
Attack the small country with a lot of natural resources.
It's the American way.
#freedom