Rising powers like India usually have differing ways to increase their influence. Previously successful tactics, where we simply highlight our importance by virtue of our historicity and the size of our population, are limited in their appeal. To reach the inflection point that casts a nation as a great power, one must navigate the shoals of international diplomacy carefully.
In the 19th century, Germany was a rising State, embedded in the heart of Europe. In 1888, the new German Emperor Wilhelm III rejected Chancellor Otto von Bismarck’s ‘peaceful foreign policy’, seeking to work towards a war of aggression and focusing on the creation of a Germany navy that would rival that of the British. He sought a colonial role for Germany, staking its own claim to natural resources and intervening across geopolitical fault lines in Morocco and Iran.
Very Germane
Perceptions of Germany across the anglophone world soon shifted, viewing it as an increasingly revanchist power, which sought to upturn the existing order. The consequences were tragic.
Meanwhile, the US took a different path. Insulated by two oceans, and blessed with two pliant neighbours, the US had the luxury to focus primarily on its economy in its vast resource rich hinterland. For the most part, US foreign policy sought to avoid ‘entanglements’, while maintaining its freedom of action, all encouraged by a streak of isolationism that has reemerged in the modern day.
Secretary of State William H Seward forswore off European involvement by citing ‘a policy of non-intervention’, which was part of the US’ ‘manifest destiny’.
The world as it stands today bears similarity to the one in the early 19th century, with new rising powers emerging and a world being shaken from its moorings. Former strong alliances are increasingly being sundered, while old geopolitical rivals like Russia and China are increasingly finding shared interests. As the US undergoes a period of significant political volatility, West Asia is in turmoil, and Europe continues to navel-gaze.
This day and age calls for a new kind of foreign policy. Decades ago, when India made a tryst with destiny, we also sought to carve our own space in the world, seeking non-alignment, which preserved India’s freedom of action, by refusing to align with any bloc or alliance. India’s propagation of the concept helped establish a significant role in multilateral organisations and influence with developing nations.
Pursuing such neutrality did not limit the assistance it received from either bloc during the Cold War. India cooperated with the West on nuclear power and with the Soviet Union on dams. And yet, it maintained its strategic autonomy from either.
India was able to befriend geopolitical rivals like Iran and Israel, while maintaining relationships with would-be theocratic states (Saudi Arabia), revolutionary (Cuba) and independence movements (Palestine).
Crafting a foreign policy approach for this age calls for a realistic assessment of our situation. India faces a deteriorating Asian security scenario, with China expanding both in Central Asia and the Indian Ocean. The rapid expansion of the ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative will ensure an East more tightly linked to China’s economy, while South Asia increasingly develops a taste for Chinese financing.