I believe that the dynamics of the courses of developing countries, such as Russia, are determined by the debt market. IMO, the best tool for predicting the moment when everything is ready for devaluation of Ruble is the chart of the Russian government bond index (RGBI). This time I used the tradingview.com service to compare the ruble exchange rate (RUB / USD) and the "pure" RGBI (without the received interest income) in one window - I noticed that it is more clearly visible where the entrance is, where the exit is (in comparison with RGBITR). It turned out very clearly:
What I see here:
- The previous exit from the state debt of the Russian Federation took ~ 1.5 years, from the beginning of 2013 to July 2014. The upper graph (RGBI) goes down, the ruble is also weakening, but slowly, swinging 33.5-> 30-> 33.3-> 36.6-> 33.7 rubles. This is the output of the "smart" money of the owners of this financial circus. Then, as demanded, sharply began to crumble oil, the rest, sitting in ruble bonds, panicked, and the collapse began (at some point the Central Bank still canceled the currency corridor, and the market just entered the peak).
- Stabilization - two minimums, in December 2014 and January 2016 - are in the strongest divergence with RGBI: in fact, the entire 15th year simultaneously felled the ruble and already entered into the ruble debt - here it is, the call of "smart" money, but this is so, NB for the future, so as not to make a mistake with the point of exit into the ruble after the future devaluation.
- The current situation - it is clear that there was no exit from the bonds before the last jump in the rate of 65, on the contrary, there was accumulation of debt. I.e, there is clearly something wrong, if the collapse of the ruble happens now, the global bankers will lose, according to my estimates, not less than $ 50 billion (for the total ruble debt is now about $ 300 billion). Or Russia will receive $ 50 billion in games with its vials. Which, you will agree, is extremely unlikely. Actually, why the last exit was 1.5 years - a major position to close quickly can not be without bringing down the market, and the best way out of bonds for big fishers is simply to let them repay by CBR in time.
There was nothing of the sort. The course itself stopped exactly at the 200-day MA (blue), which was already 2 times in this cycle (yellow ellipses). So, most likely the situation is stabilizing, but I think this is the beginning of the exit.
In general, all previous analogies indicate the timing of a new collapse somewhere around the end of 2018-early 2019.
Will wait!