GDPNow still not calling for recession.

This economy is seemingly refusing to follow the punditry calling for a recession. GDPNow's nowcast expects Q4 GDP to come in at 3.9%. Just a little over 3 weeks until the actual GDP release.

There's some economic data yet to be released that could change the nowcast for the quarter, but we are getting into the stretch where the nowcast gets more accurate. This is another quarter where there is a wide divergence between the nowcast and the blue chip consensus forecasts. The nowcast was correct the last time this occurred.

Notably neither the nowcast or blue chip consensus range expect negative GDP this quarter.