I'm still fairly bullish on Dems' chances of holding the Senate, but I think keeping control of the House is a real long shot at this point. The generic ballot is now +1 Republicans.
The generic ballot is actually pretty accurate. On election day, it has a historical average error of +~2-3% from the eventual House popular vote. With the way redistricting went this cycle, Republicans pretty much have a 3 seat advantage already, so it wouldn't be enough just for Democrats to win the House popular vote.
What this means is basically we'd have to see a huge miss on the generic ballot polling for Dems to keep the House.
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These are surprising results, though they are a bit incoherent with other polling data. Like I'm sure the people that support January 6th have convinced themselves they are champions of the Constitution, but that doesn't really change the reality of their behavior. And #2 is in conflict with polling data on support for voting restrictions by party.
#3 is probably very time specific. Each party seems to love EOs when they are the ones controlling the Executive. EOs can be lawful too, so not the best worded question.
This project is running for the next three years, so we'll get to see how it evolves with changes in power.
