Windmills and Solar Panels aren’t the END of Fossil Fuels

Driving through Iowa earlier this week, I spotted a wind farm on the plains mixed in with the corn and soybean fields that dominate the Iowa landscape. Of course, the topic always comes up about renewable electric energy and how it is leading to a cleaner and more sustainable Earth. While this is partially true, I would be remiss not to point out the realities of people’s expectations and general lack of understanding how electric energy, power grids, and energy use on the whole actually operate.

Let me start by making a disclaimer: I am PRO renewable energy. I like clean air and clean water and I believe providing electricity and energy is the single best way to improve people’s lives globally especially underdeveloped areas. This post is based on my knowledge as an energy analyst/economist and the opinions I express are based on facts not “feel goodism”. If this offends you, I’m sure there is an article on rainbows and unicorns somewhere on internet for you. This post is to dispel myths and create a constructive dialogue and not designed to anger anyone (except maybe SJW’s).

The advancements in wind and solar energy grab a lot of attention nowadays. It seems like every time Elon Musk’s name is mentioned, people get all giddy and excited about the prospects of eliminating fossil fuels. The current technology and the prospects for future innovations in the arena of wind and solar are fantastic, but they will only mean a reduction in our dependence on fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas and coal. They can’t and won’t replace these fossil fuels without some assistance in other areas of renewable energy and those sources appear to be many decades away from prototypes, test trials, and eventual adoption.

Some Harsh Realities Regarding Renewable Energy Myths

Electric Cars will replace gasoline/diesel engines – Yes and No.

There will be a reduction in the amount of gasoline/diesel automobiles as new electric cars become more affordable and plentiful. We’ve seen the headlines about London and other cities “outlawing” fossil fuel cars by 2050. It sounds good and I’m sure it buys votes. However, there are some serious issues confronting electric cars.

• The materials to make the batteries are finite resources in and of themselves. Where will we get all the materials to replace the 100’s of millions of vehicles? Will we then need “renewable materials” for our renewable energy vehicles?

• How will we make these vehicles without steel, other metals, and plastics? Without fossil fuels, none of these materials is possible. Sorry, but your windmill can’t heat iron ore sufficiently to make steel. We will still need coking coal.

• How will we make enough electricity to charge all these car batteries? Windmill and solar panel companies can beat their chests all they want, but they can’t meet demand consistently now. How are they going to “fuel” 100’s of millions of vehicles? The answer is that they aren’t: fossil fuels and nuclear will be providing the electricity for your “non-fossil fuel” vehicle.
  

Windmills and solar panels are awesome and will replace the need for fossil fuel power plants. Again, Yes and No.

The headlines tell you great stories like “Germany relied solely on renewable for a whole 3 hours” or “Chile has more solar energy than it can buy.” People really need to read the fine print in these articles because while they are “accurate” on the surface, it doesn’t tell the whole energy story. Here are some issues with renewables and the electric grid.

• Electricity produced from wind and solar is still much more expensive to create than electricity from natural gas, nuclear, and coal. We can all stand high on our horse and talk about saving the Earth, but when push comes to shove most people in most countries are going to elect the most affordable solution to meet their needs. So, while I’m sure that the 2.5 billion people who are deprived of consistent electricity can admire Europe’s “Green” stance, they don’t give a shit. They want lights and heat. Here’s something to consider: India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, campaigned on a slogan, “Renewable energy to light a lightbulb in every home.” (emphasis mine) Not Internet, Healthcare, Affordable Housing, World Peace, or any other gobbly gook, BS slogan – A lightbulb (singular). How will India achieve this? Some renewable energy, yes. But mostly coal because it’s affordable.
  

• Wind and Solar aren’t consistent producers of electricity. If the wind is blowing and the sun is shining, it is great for renewables. Unfortunately, the wind doesn’t always blow and the sun doesn’t always shine. So, if we close down that coal or gas fired electric plant, what will happen? Well, businesses will have to shut down operations, schools will be in the dark, and you won’t be able to watch Game of Thrones. Even in Germany, where they have a large amount of renewables that feed into the electrical grid of the country (and even larger subsidies totaling over $200 billion), there is a need to keep other forms of electricity online to generate what is termed, “baseload capacity”. Essentially, this is the amount of constant energy that must be passed through the electrical grid in order to keep it stable and meet the demands of consumers. Renewables just can’t do that at this point. Germany gets about 33% of it's electricity from renewables.

• Market problems plague renewables also. In the last several years, businesses in Chile have invested huge amounts of money into solar energy. The results have been good as far as production goes. However, during the sunniest times of the year, the amount of electricity generated is exceeding demand and not just barely. It has created a glut, which has driven prices down to near zero. This sounds good on the surface, but who wants to invest money in a power plant or solar farm that can’t get a return on investment. The worry now is that additional renewables projects will be abandoned due to “poor market” conditions. Oh, by the way, Chile still generates most of their electricity by burning coal. Renewables account for only a fraction of total electric energy.
  

We should just make laws against using fossil fuels.

It sounds good, but it isn’t practical because - Production and Transportation of Manufactured Goods Fuel the Global Economy. People need to ask themselves how things are made and how do we get the things we love to markets where we can buy them at affordable prices BEFORE we start making laws that limit our ability to meet consumer needs. Manufacturing requires a great deal of energy most of which is in the form of electricity. So, the plant that makes your $1000 iPhone needs electricity to run the show. All the components to make your super-duper smart phone have to be mined, fabricated, and then shipped to that Chinese factory. Many of the ingredients come from as far away as Africa. Upon completion of that phone that can do nearly everything except shoot down “SCUD Missiles”, it must be shipped again to markets. This goes for Tesla’s, energy efficient lightbulbs, and even windmills and solar panels.

• Energy efficient products are still using fossil fuels in their production. The iPhone factory isn’t running on renewables. It is running on a variety of energy sources, but primarily coal. That Toyota Prius is also soaking up Terawatts of electricity produced by natural gas or nuclear. Even the “Earth-saving” Tesla is built with metals made from coking coal.
  
• Getting goods to market requires the use of gigantic steel ships that run on diesel fuel. While the size of these vessels continues to get larger, which does create some net-fuel savings, they still require huge amounts of fossil fuels to operate. Furthermore, these vessels require fossil fuels to build them. Next, you have trains, trucks, and cargo vans that bring these items closer to market. The same rules apply to them. Unless we want to go back to wooden sailing ships, fossil fuels are necessary to keep our world running.
  

We are going to run out of fossil fuels and if we don’t have a replacement, we are in deep trouble.

Yes, of course we will eventually run out of fossil fuels. One indisputable law of the universe is that all things have a beginning and an end. That being said, we will not run out of fossil fuels in the lifetime of any person reading this post or that person’s grandchildren (most probably their great-grandchildren).

• "The wells are running out!" For many decades, people have been subscribing to a theory called Hubbert’s Curve. It runs very much like the Malthusian theory of food production. Both of them are complete nonsense and like the Chicken Little – Sky is Falling story, they lack a fundamental understanding of how humanity addresses shortages of necessary goods and innovating for survival. Historically, people have always developed alternatives long before they were desperately needed. These innovations were most often market driven. As oil and natural gas have become more difficult to extract, technology has advanced in a way that has changed the difficulty level. Some recent examples of this are horizontal drilling, hydraulic fracturing (aka fracking), and 3D Seismic exploration.

• Well replacement for most oil companies is a huge priority. Not because they hate the Earth, but because they exist to make a profit and those profits rely on new materials to extract, refine, and sell. It’s a huge business and very competitive the world over.
  The shale oil revolution in the U.S. and Canada has changed the level of North America’s dependence on imports as well as changing the direction of oil prices to bring them down considerably over the last few years. However, the shale deposits in North America such as the Bakken that have had such a huge impact are a fraction of the size of a shale formation in Russia called the Bashenov. Russian companies have hardly touched these deposits yet and they still export the most natural gas and the 2nd most barrels of oil in the world. Add to that the offshore projects in the Sakhalin Island area and the Arctic and the Russians will be producing for 100 years plus easily. Additionally, the Chinese and Iranian fields are under-developed as well. Iran has the largest natural gas reserves in the world and they aren’t even exporting yet.
  

• Oil and gas companies don’t care about the Earth, the environment or its people. This is totally false and those that believe it are victims of CNN style vitriol that helps nobody. Have oil and gas companies done some shady shit? Absolutely. So have chemical companies, automotive companies, pharmaceutical companies, etc. No industry is immune. I could write a whole series of articles on the environmental catastrophes directly or indirectly caused by the “good guys” of the World Health Organization, the United Nations, the U.S. EPA, and various governments of the world. Before you run out screaming about environmental damage done by oil companies, you might want to research the topic of bird migration patterns and deaths from windmills and solar panel arrays as well as the ecosystem damage. There are improvements to be made to protect the environment and our general health across the board. Targeting the fossil fuel industry alone is counter-productive.
  

Conclusions and Considerations

Renewable energy is great. I’m ecstatic at the progress that I’ve seen in my lifetime (born in 1970) in the renewables sector. We are making great progress on a number of fronts and not just with wind and solar. There are some other amazing developments like using spent nuclear fuel rods infinitely, hydrogen fuel cells, and even “blue energy” which harnesses the reaction between clean water and salt water. Like I said before, this is very cool stuff.

Additionally, every year we develop the means to extract, refine, and use fossil fuels in a cleaner and more efficient fashion. We also have been developing ways that we can use fossil fuels and their by-products for other materials that create a net benefit to society such as uses of bitumen, plastics, and a plethora of other products.

Whether these improvements can be attributed to the “green energy” movement or by the need for businesses to maintain/increase profitability is debatable, but in the grand scheme of things it doesn’t matter why. The important thing is that we are becoming more efficient with our energy use. This may seem slow to the average person, but the “leaps” in technology are noticeable.

I hope we will continue to see tangible improvements in the energy sector especially in the area of renewables, but I think we are being quite delusional in thinking that the fossil fuel era is or should come to an end anytime soon. Therefore, our energies need not be spent on vilifying certain industries, but rather working on innovating improvements and developing competing technologies.

Sources: Too many to name after so many years of study, but none of the information is terribly hard to find. Google is a good place to start.

Want to learn more about energy use globally and locally? Try these:
International Energy Agency (IEA) – Especially their graphs on Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES)
Oxford Energy Institute
Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ERIRAS)
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
BP and Shell websites and annual reports – BP is the best of the two.

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