MOSCOW — England was outstandingly good at the World Cup on Sunday - but not outstandingly smart. On the back of an extraordinary first-half scoring blitz in Nizhny Novgorod, it destroyed Panama with five unanswered goals, but should have left it at that.
A deflected 62nd-minute effort from Harry Kane, which should have been disallowed for offside, gave England a sixth goal. Although Panama grabbed one of its own for a final 6-1 margin, Kane's seemingly meaningless strike could have a distinct impact on the Three Lions' World Cup journey because Group 3 of this tournament is set up strangely.
Belgium and England are now identically tied at the top of it, and have both secured safe passage to the round of 16, while Panama and Tunisia are both eliminated. Both have six points. Both have a goal differential of +6, both have scored eight goals in the process.
Yet there is likely to be a significant advantage in finishing second in the group as opposed to winning it, once things shake out in the draw for the knockout round.
Both England and Belgium will face a team from Group H, which still has a long way to go before being resolved in the round of 16. Yet none of those teams, either Japan or Senegal (both on three points after one game) or Poland and Colombia (zero points), would give much reason for fear based off pedigree and form.
Assuming England and Belgium were both able to progress from there, then things get interesting. Because the most likely quarterfinal opponent for the team that wins Group G would be Brazil (or possibly Germany). The team finishing second? Well, as things stand, it would be in line to face off with Mexico (or perhaps Switzerland).
Mexico is in tremendous form, but common sense still dictates that you would rather play El Tri than Brazil with a place in the semifinals at stake.
Taking the above into account, it is fair to assume that neither Belgium nor England will have much interest in busting their tail to try to win the game when they play each other in the final group clash in Kaliningrad on Thursday.
So what do they do? FIFA takes a particularly dim view of teams trying to throw games, and the fallout from a side deliberately losing would be severe. But there is nothing in the rules to prevent a team from making mass changes and putting in weaker players, nor from a squad playing so defensively as to make little effort to score.
If England and Belgium play to a draw, the final tiebreaker to decide who wins the group would be disciplinary points, as in, whichever team has racked up the lowest amount of red and yellow cards.
As things stand, England has two yellow cards (worth one disciplinary point each) while Belgium has three. Could we see a replacement player "inadvertently" sent off (three disciplinary points) on Thursday? Stranger things have happened.
Regardless, the first-half performance against Panama was the best England display at a World Cup for years, and it came after a week of controversy in which head coach Gareth Southgate was at loggerheads with his country’s media following the apparent revelation of his tactical plans in the press.
Perhaps it fired up England, but either way it was good enough for a high place in the World Cup record books. The only previous teams to score five unanswered goals in the opening half of a game at the tournament were Yugoslavia, which ended up beating Zaire 9-0 in 1974 following a six-goal first half effort, and Germany, which struck five in its 7-1 demolition of Brazil in the 2014 semifinal.
Kane completed a hat-trick that included two first-half penalties, defender John Stones helped himself to two, and Jesse Lingard reeled off a fine strike from outside the area. Panama's late consolation goal came from Felipe Baloy with 12 minutes left.
It was enough to raise hopes back home and have England thinking seriously about its prospect for a deep run in the tournament, while keeping a crafty eye on the multitude of statistical permutations that could make all the difference.