Disclaimer: I do hold EOS. I am an EOS fanboy. This is not financial advice.
I bought my long term EOS investment at 50 cents. A few of my friends and telegram associates said I was a lunatic, but in this article I really wanted to go into a bit of my thinking and why I think EOS will continue to rise up to and beyond the end of the ICO period.
When predicting price actions, I often look for similar models and comparisons in order to establish trends. In the case of EOS, we have quite a unique model in terms of its ICO.
For those that don’t know, the EOS ICO runs for 350 days; from 26th June 2017 until June 1st 2018. Every single day there is a period. In each period 2 million tokens are available and are distributed by weight to the contributors. So if only 1 person has donated 1 ETH in the ICO on that day, that one person gets 2 million EOS tokens. If 10 people donate 1 ETH each, each of those people get 200,000 EOS tokens. If one person donated 99 ETH and another 1 ETH, that person who donated 1 ETH would receive 1% of the 2 million EOS tokens.
Now, this model lends itself to something not seen before in ICO’s, since the supply is fixed per day, the figurative ‘cost’ of each token is depicted by volume.
The Ethereum Pre-sale
The Ethereum pre-sale sparked my interested because it’s one of the few ICO’s that ran within a fairly lengthy time period. The Ethereum pre-sale took place from Tuesday 22 July 2014 to Tuesday 2nd September 2014; 42 days.
The price of Ether was initially set to 2000 ETH per BTC for 14 days, and then linearly decreased until it reached 1337 ETH per BTC.
What interested me, was the volume that occurred over the 42 day period.
Source: https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/08/08/ether-sale-a-statistical-overview/
You can clearly see two main clusters - one at the start and one at the end, with the majority of the lull being between 30-60% of the time period. I.e. the ‘middle’ is where we see the least volume on average. The end of the pre-sale shows a huge influx of volume.
How this relates to the EOS crowdsale
Total ETH contributed to the EOS crowdsale vs period number. This is a screen shot taken from eosscan.io on 21/12/17, period number 181 out of 350. I have badly photoshopped it to show that the periods are not finished yet (i.e. there is still more room on the chart).
Do you see a comparison between the ETH pre-sale volume and the EOS crowdsale volume?
- Big volume at the start
- A 'lull' midway through
The final piece of the puzzle is the MASSIVE volume that comes at the end of the ETH pre-sale. I have no doubt in my mind that this is coming. There will be drivers for this.
- Big industry players announcing blockchain applications built on EOS.
- Existing blockchain projects moving to the EOS platform.
- Announcements from block.one regarding the distribution of the $1 billion set aside for application development.
- The continual ahead-of schedule development of the EOS platform, including Dawn 3.0 release on January 31st 2018.
- General crypto market bullishness going into 2018, and hype around “Blockchain 2.0” platforms and applications.
There’s a catch
… and it’s a good one. When the huge volume went in at period 0 (651,902.18 ETH was contributed), 200 million EOS tokens were available to be distributed. This obviously kept the price of an EOS token relatively low by today’s standards at around 80 cents.
For the rest of the periods, only 2 million EOS tokens are available daily. The last period (#350) still only has 2 million tokens available. If for example, we saw the same amount of volume as day 0 on day 350, that would give you just 3.06 EOS tokens per Ether. At todays Ether price ($820), that’s $286.3 per EOS token.
But that would be a $280 billion market cap!
I know.
At the time of writing this article, the entire crypto market cap is $642bn. 9 weeks ago, it was 163bn, an increase of almost 4 times. The crowdsale ends in another 9 weeks, who knows where we will be by then? At this moment in time, money is literally flooding into cryptocurrency.
Why did I buy at 0.50 cents?
If we are to repeat the Ethereum crowdsale, the optimum time would be around the 50% mark of distribution.
As I mentioned, during period 0, rather than 2 million tokens being available, 200 million tokens were made available. 20% of the entire supply of EOS was sold during the first day. This causes a bit of a skew in time vs distribution.
Therefore, do we take the “middle” period to be time (i.e. period no. 175/300), or do we take it as 50% token distribution?
In my thoughts, since supply fits into the token price equation, that was far more influential on the price.
So when the EOS token price was at 50 cents, 50% of the EOS tokens had already been distributed. For me, that was the ‘middle’ of the ICO phase.
Conclusion
To me, it is clear as day that we will see a repeat of the Ethereum pre-sale in terms of the volume that will enter into the EOS ICO during the later periods.
Since the ICO is structured in a way that means increased volume effectively increases the “price” of each token, I have little to no doubt in my mind that the price of EOS will continue to rise into and beyond the end of the ICO, to potentially unimaginable levels.
More details on the Ethereum Pre-Sale, written by Vitalik himself: https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/08/08/ether-sale-a-statistical-overview/
Statistics on EOS ICO: https://eosscan.io/
If you don’t actually know what EOS is and why the tokens have value, here is a great analogy - 
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