I would agree with the mainnet launch being priced in, but over the past 5 years I have been watching bitcoin price react to block-halvings. I doubt there is anything more predictable than halvings in bitcoin, yet every time the market reacts. It just doesn't make sense. The mainnet launch will do something to the price as well. Don't ask me what. I assume if it goes well, the uncertainty that leaves the market will cause a price increase. The future will probably prove me wrong though.