Here are my goal expectancies for EPL matches in GW28.
The numbers
The methods used to generate these are:
- Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
- Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)
The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.
Copy/pastable table version
| Home | Away | Home GE | Away GE | Tot G | G Supr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester | Stoke | 1.951083372 | 0.9996398488 | 2.95072322 | 0.9514435227 |
| Bournemouth | Newcastle | 1.490618091 | 1.18142754 | 2.67204563 | 0.309190551 |
| Brighton | Swansea | 1.248647859 | 0.9324044279 | 2.181052287 | 0.3162434312 |
| Burnley | Southampton | 1.090861529 | 0.8139400136 | 1.904801543 | 0.2769215159 |
| Liverpool | West Ham | 2.543971251 | 0.9203290547 | 3.464300306 | 1.623642196 |
| West Brom | Huddersfield | 1.433185477 | 0.858169362 | 2.291354838 | 0.5750161146 |
| Watford | Everton | 1.666767861 | 1.345413096 | 3.012180957 | 0.321354765 |
| Man United | Chelsea | 1.383272459 | 1.029216134 | 2.412488593 | 0.3540563242 |
| Crystal Palace | Tottenham | 0.9443072831 | 1.761738411 | 2.706045694 | -0.8174311274 |
| Arsenal | Man City | 1.496851382 | 1.877807496 | 3.374658878 | -0.380956114 |
Summary
- My banker for this week is Liverpool with a goal supremacy value of 1.62.
- I predict the highest scoring game to be Liverpool vs West Ham with a total Goal Expectancy of 3.46 (most likely scores are 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 in that order)
- Burnley vs Southampton looks to be the lowest scoring game with a Goal Expectancy of just 1.9. My prediction is a tight 1-0 win for Burnley.
Bet of the week
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham
Analysis: Since Hodgson took over at Crystal Palace on 12th September 2017, they have only lost twice out of 11 games, and neither were by more than a single goal. This includes against teams of a comparable level to Spurs: Man City (0-0), Arsenal (2-3) and Chelsea (2-1).
Crystal Palace's home record since Hodgson took over:
Spurs are still an extremely dangerous team of course, and at their best can dominate against any team, even away from home. In fact, I was at Anfield a couple weeks ago when Spurs fought back twice to grab a vital point as it finished 2-2. They did the same against Juventus in the CL.
Bet: 1pt Crystal Palace +1 (AH) @ 2.16 (BetVictor)
Finally, the Asian Handicap picks I've gone for in 
Leicester Over 2.5
Burnley +0
West Ham +1.75
Watford Over 2.5
Crystal Palace +1
Thanks for reading, and good luck with your FPL and/or bets this week!
Adam (acelad)
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