The numbers
The methods used to generate these are:
- Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
- Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)
The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.
Copy/pastable table version
| Home | Away | Home GE | Away GE | Tot G | G Supr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | Everton | 1.212926636 | 0.8226334569 | 2.035560092 | 0.3902931786 |
| Leicester | Bournemouth | 1.619405194 | 1.116361632 | 2.735766825 | 0.503043562 |
| Southampton | Stoke | 1.599313209 | 1.005388515 | 2.604701724 | 0.5939246935 |
| Tottenham | Huddersfield | 2.493739894 | 0.589351993 | 3.083091887 | 1.904387901 |
| Swansea | West Ham | 1.332279731 | 1.241353476 | 2.573633206 | 0.090926255 |
| Watford | West Brom | 1.488875219 | 1.03690718 | 2.525782399 | 0.4519680389 |
| Liverpool | Newcastle | 2.308130378 | 0.8618181836 | 3.169948562 | 1.446312194 |
| Brighton | Arsenal | 1.218965917 | 1.484794264 | 2.703760181 | -0.2658283465 |
| Man City | Chelsea | 2.073387463 | 1.084441784 | 3.157829247 | 0.9889456783 |
| Crystal Palace | Man United | 0.8816125882 | 1.585103441 | 2.466716029 | -0.7034908528 |
Summary
- My banker for this week is Tottenham with a goal supremacy value of 1.9
- I predict the highest scoring game to be Liverpool vs Newcastle with a total Goal Expectancy of 3.17
- Burnley vs Everton looks to be the lowest scoring game with a Goal Expectancy of just 2.04
Bet of the week
Crystal Palace vs Man United
Analysis: If you saw my post last week, you'd have seen me tip Crystal Palace to beat the +1 handicap at home to Spurs, thanks to their decent home record under Hodgson. An 88th min winner from Kane meant I had to settle for a push (money back). Let's consider this attempt number 2, against a United side that, in my opinion, is not quite as good as Spurs (although the table currently doesn't reflect that). In the 14 away matches United have played this season, they have won by 2 goals or more in just 4 (0-4 vs Swansea, 2-4 vs Watford, 1-3 vs Arsenal, 0-2 vs Everton).
I believe United are due a bit of regression, as even though they have arguably the best goalkeeper in the world in De Gea, even he can't keep up his current rate of match-saving performances for much longer. Even if Palace don't score, they are certainly capable of keeping a clean sheet (as they did against Man City when it finished 0-0). United on the other hand lost their last away game 1-0 to a team at a similar level to Palace (Newcastle), and so the obvious bet for me is to take Palace on the handicap.
Bet: Crystal Palace +1 (AH) @ 1.97 (188BET)
Finally, the Asian Handicap picks I've gone for in 
Swansea Over 2.25
Huddersfield +2
Newcastle +2
B&H Albion +0.5
Crystal Palace +1
Thanks for reading, and good luck with your FPL and bets this week!
Adam (acelad)
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