The numbers
The methods used to generate these are:
- Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
- Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)
The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.
Copy/pastable table version
| Home | Away | Home GE | Away GE | Tot G | G Supr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | Liverpool | 1.08 | 1.91 | 2.99 | -0.83 |
| Bournemouth | Crystal Palace | 1.55 | 1.13 | 2.68 | 0.41 |
| Brighton | Huddersfield | 1.33 | 0.89 | 2.22 | 0.45 |
| Leicester | Newcastle | 1.48 | 1.09 | 2.57 | 0.39 |
| Stoke | Tottenham | 0.83 | 1.91 | 2.74 | -1.07 |
| Watford | Burnley | 1.13 | 1.08 | 2.21 | 0.05 |
| West Brom | Swansea | 1.20 | 0.86 | 2.06 | 0.34 |
| Man City | Man United | 1.70 | 0.89 | 2.59 | 0.81 |
| Arsenal | Southampton | 2.04 | 0.87 | 2.90 | 1.17 |
| Chelsea | West Ham | 2.27 | 0.83 | 3.10 | 1.44 |
Summary
- My banker of the week is Chelsea with a goal supremacy value of 1.44
- (!) Despite Liverpool having a goal supremacy value of 0.83 vs Everton, their first team is likely to be rested
- (!) Man City may also rest players for their CL fixture on Tuesday, but as their squad is so strong, I expect they'll still have enough to win the title at home
Bet of the week
This bet is an unusual one for me, as it's not really a stats-based tip, but instead circumstantial. Everton face Liverpool in the early kick-off tomorrow, but it almost certainly won't be the Liverpool team we're used to seeing, as their huge 2nd-leg Quarter Final against Man City is only on Tuesday. Klopp has been vocal about his annoyance at having to play this game so close to both CL games, and has heavily hinted he will have to rotate the team.
The lineup itself is almost impossible to predict, but I'm going to try anyway!
Mignolet
Clyne - Lovren - Masterson - Moreno
Chamberlain - Henderson - Wijnaldum
Ings - Solanke - Firmino
EDIT: As Woodburn is apparently injured, I've brought Firmino in for him
With Liverpool resting players, Everton should be able to achieve at least a draw in front of their own fans, and at almost evens to do so this seems a good bet.
Bet: Everton +0.5 (AH) @ 1.98 (188BET)
Finally, the Asian Handicap picks I've gone for in 
Everton +0.5
Huddersfield +0.5
Stoke City +1.5
WBA Under 2
West Ham +1.75
Thanks for reading, and good luck with your FPL and bets this week!
Adam (acelad)
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