The numbers
The methods used to generate these are:
- Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
- Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)
The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.
Copy/pastable table version
| Home | Away | Home GE | Away GE | Tot G | G Supr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United | Liverpool | 1.48 | 1.20 | 2.68 | 0.29 |
| Everton | Brighton | 1.39 | 1.03 | 2.42 | 0.35 |
| Huddersfield | Swansea | 1.18 | 1.00 | 2.18 | 0.18 |
| Newcastle | Southampton | 1.28 | 1.03 | 2.32 | 0.25 |
| West Brom | Leicester | 1.20 | 1.15 | 2.35 | 0.05 |
| West Ham | Burnley | 1.16 | 0.98 | 2.14 | 0.18 |
| Chelsea | Crystal Palace | 2.08 | 0.73 | 2.81 | 1.35 |
| Arsenal | Watford | 2.07 | 1.07 | 3.14 | 1.00 |
| Bournemouth | Tottenham | 0.98 | 1.65 | 2.63 | -0.67 |
| Stoke | Man City | 0.80 | 2.29 | 3.08 | -1.49 |
Summary
- My banker of the week is Man City with a goal supremacy value of 1.49
- The highest scoring game is expected to be Arsenal vs Watford with a total goal expectancy value of 3.14
- The tightest game is West Brom vs Leicester with a goal supremacy value of just 0.05
Bet of the week
Bournemouth vs Tottenham
Analysis: Bournemouth are unbeaten in the last 5 at home, including a decent 2-1 victory against Arsenal. In fact, only two teams have beaten Bournemouth by more than a single goal when playing there (Liverpool 0-4 and Watford 0-2). Even the mighty Man City could only win 1-2 after a 97th minute winner!
Spurs in their last away game managed a 0-1 victory away to Palace thanks to a late Kane winner. Most recently though, they have been knocked out of the CL by Juventus in frustrating fashion, and so could be suffering from a "hangover"
The H2H favours Bournemouth slightly here, with the last meeting being a tight 1-0 victory for Spurs, and more importantly, the last time at Bournemouth's ground it finished 0-0.
With all of this taken into account, I think Bournemouth are, more often than not, going to make this difficult for Spurs. By betting on the +1 Asian handicap, we can protect our money against a 1-goal Spurs victory, while still keeping a Bournemouth win or draw on our side.
Bet: Bournemouth +1 (AH) @ 2.08 (Bet365)
Finally, the Asian Handicap picks I've gone for in 
Bournemouth +1
Stoke City +1.75
Crystal Palace +1.5
Watford +1.25
Newcastle +0
Thanks for reading, and good luck with your FPL and bets this week!
Adam (acelad)
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