3 months ago when ETH was well under $1000, I predicted a $10,000+ price per ETH in 2018. A lot of people saw that and thought my prediction was the lunatic fringe. The basis of my prediction was a model based around Metcalfe's law which has been the most successful model to date for predicting the price of ETH.
Today we see the Bitcoin bubble has popped and Bitcoin dominance has diminished greatly. We also see Ethereum peaked out at around $2000 in South Korea which is far from the $10,000 + I predicted for 2018. At the same time Bitcoin peaked out at $20,000 while I predicted around $18,000, and now I think Bitcoin is approaching it's true worth. At the same time I still see Ethereum as under valued.
What is going on?
Ethereum price in my opinion will rise once the scaling solutions are implemented. This is because Metcalfe's law requires scalability more than anything else. Ethereum has the brain power in developers, has the apps, has the demand for growth, but does not yet have the capacity to meet that demand. In other words, Ethereum developers can't keep up with the rate of growth until these features are implemented:
- Sharding.
- Hybrid POS.
In my opinion when we see sharing implemented we will see a spike in price to over $5000 if not higher. There will be nothing technical holding back usage at that point. At the same time POS will lock a lot of tokens up and also make things more efficient. All of these improvements I expect to be implemented in 2018.
My prediction still stands: ETH at $10,000+ in 2018. This to be expected after scalability improvements implemented.
This is not investment advice. I will be holding ETH but do not recommend readers take any action.