Hello Everyone,
This is CryptoGates. In this post, I would like to share my analysis of Ethereum's price movements in 2017.
The first graph and chart represent each day's return, 1st through 31st, from 1/1/2017 to 12/16/17.
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P-values represent the precision of respective data. Values closer to 0 means highly precise and values closer to 1 means highly un-precise. It is from 0-1 scale. Generally, p-values larger than .2 are not considered significant, and in the case for Ethereum, none of the days show significance, meaning there really isn't any meaningful correlation or have much predictive power. However, you can still use this to compare with BTC's chart to draw on your own analysis.
Next, I have excluded the weekends from each days, so all days that fell on weekends were excluded.
This time, the result yielded some significant results. Like I said earlier, P-values below .1 (.1= 90% or greater significance) are considered significant, meaning it has a very high predictive power. And I have highlighted the significant values in bright yellow. I have also highlighted "somewhat" significant results in light peach color. The significance could indicate there may be some hidden variable causing this significance.
Now, with those significant days, namely 12th, 18th, 19th, 25th and 27th, I have checked their average returns when they fell on weekends. And just as expected, the result yielded significant results- 18th and 19th. Given the small sample size for the weekend variables, although the p-values for 18th and 19th are quite significant, it may be purely due to luck. It's up to you guys to judge.
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Next, I checked for any significance for average returns of Mondays through Sundays. Not much significant result was yielded, however, Sundays seem to have somewhat significantly higher returns.
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Lastly, I have added some basic stats info about Ethereum's performance in 2017. I calculated each days return by using Ethereum's closing price from a day's price to the previous day's price, which I obtained from coinmarketcap.com.
Let me know if any of you guys want me to analyze any coins in particular.
Thanks for reading,
Cryptogates