Recently I posted and informed about an upcoming social network based on Ethereum: Ethereal. If you didn't read my post, here it is: https://steemit.com/new/@moodledidoodledi/new-social-network-using-ethereum-ethereal
So it seems as for now Scenario 2 seems to be the case: The countdown ended and nothing happened.
Now why did the countdown end so late? That's because during the last day some "problems" occurred and the countdown was further postponed by 2 days (according to reddit post). Right now this post (https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/4udnm4/ethereal_ethereum_social_network_4_day_countdown/) says that Ethereal will be revealed in a "few hours" but this information is older than one day, with no real update until now. It seems that Ethereal is no real thing, although there is still the chance that there will be something revealed. I will keep you guys updated about this.
Hope you enjoyed,
moodle