I'd define consensus as a coin having more miners, users, and overall utilization, which ETH undoubtedly has, at the moment. How much of that is being directed politically by exchanges and the Ethereum foundation? Time will tell. The people will vote with their money and hash power. It's a beautiful system. I THINK ultimately ETC will come out on top once people realize what the hard fork means. But I could be wrong. Either way it'll be very interesting to see how it all plays out.