Just do not thinking so hard about when and where to buy Ethereum or what to you can do. Do make things easy by making them systematic. There is one way that you can do. See in the chart above, Using BITCOIN's first major run & correction as a proxy for future behaviors in Ethereum . My idea is to buy Ethereum based on a .764 re- tracement for Ethereum , Want anything b/w $50 - $120 each coin and of course the lower the better.
Risk/Reward is simple for this trade. They are not worth Zero Percent complicating because the crypto-market won't allow you to. Anyone can puts on a short on either of these assets is at a huge disadvantage. Anyone can thinks it could be a time for these assets or use leverage beyond their capital is in the same position as guy willing to short. Disadvantaged. Ironically, these factors. the speed of trading, the volatility , the lack of liquidizes, reduce variables in the risk equation. Simply buying & holding is the best strategy for either one. To get as many Ethereum as I can do, I really want price to reach purple region.
BITCOIN could be EASILY fall back to its key level 1100 Dollar. See at the green dashed line at 1100$ - that was the original major breakout line as expect price to potentially revisit.
But if Ethereum will go down, won't Bitcoin!? it is not necessarily, but can be...
You are seriously dumping your time. Many assets does not accessible to everyone in this world with only one target - to survive. As long as assets survive, Cash will flow from all different sides of this world. As long as that could happens for the next 5 - 10 years Plus, they will likely be rise exponentially. So think about that for a second. If I risk 15% of my net-worth, or even 30%, I could lose 15 - 30% of my entire net-worth if Ethereum goes to 0. Or If it survives, Probably I will make 10x, 20x, etc, on my investment. Risk/Reward? It's risk One dollar to make Ten dollar, or much more.