| Chapter 12 | Chapter 14 |
Part II
13
Bjarne
Örebro, Northern Neutral Territories, December 27nd 2042
"So what is your assessment, Professor Fjelstad?" Bjarne's young assistant Ian asked, whispering.
Bjarne looked once more at the weather statistics.
"We are failing. We are most definitely failing. I know we were expecting a setback from the war ending, but these figures really can't be attributed to reduced greenhouse gas emissions alone."
"You are not suggesting that …."
"What else could it be Ian? Temperature is one thing, but we are seeing a massive drop in tail events. It's the Holocene, my young friend. It is ending."
"Of course it is ending Bjarne" The committee's bearded chairman spoke, looking a bit agitated. "The Holocene has been ending for centuries. Why else would our predecessors have incepted the industrial revolution? Why else would we have been working so hard to promote greenhouse gas emissions all this time? Really Bjarne, where is your mind?"
"With all due respect Mister Chairman, when I say it is ending, I mean it is ending right now, as we speak. The interglacial is over! Unless we up our game we might have to move next year's gathering to Barcelona. Örebro will be North Pole cold next year. And if not next year, the year after that for sure."
As Bjarne looked around the room he saw fear in everyone's eyes except for those of his pupil Ian. Ian looked puzzled instead.
"Surely the new ice age won't reclaim the north that quickly? There must be more time Professor. Mustn't there?" Ian asked.
"Shut up, stupid boy!" An old man at the far end of the table shouted angrily. "Don't you understand, kid? They will be back! We are not ready! The world is not ready!"
"Please excuse my apprentice, Gunnar, he doesn't understand. Ian, it's the ocean currents. They work basically like a global warming engine driving the Holocene. I'll explain you the details later, but these figures, they basically show the engine is grinding to a halt as we speak. Once it does, it's over. No more Holocene."
"Then we have no other resolve," the chairman spoke. "We will need to trigger the Eiffel.
Bjarne, do we have enough time left to arrange for evacuation?"
"If we assume controlled methane release, yes absolutely, but if we end up triggering the supervolcano? We would be talking about evacuating millions of people. Köln, Bonn, Koblenz, the whole of Luxemburg. We could never pull that off in time. We would be talking millions of casualties and then the dimming effects of a supervolcano eruption. The net effect would be negative despite the massive methane release, I'm afraid. Are we really considering this Mister Chairman?"
"What are the probabilities? Get me the probabilities." The chairman snapped at Bjarne.
"Ian?" Bjarne spoke as he glanced at his apprentice.
Ian looked through his notes quickly, skimming over the pages, then he stood up and spoke up:
"Twenty-one point seven percent Mister Chairman. The current projections are that there is a twenty-one point seven percent chance of triggering the supervolcano if we attempt to release the methane."
"Good work kid. One in five. I don't see any other options. Unless someone has seen another option, I say we go for it."
"Are we really going to risk millions of deaths to prolong the Holocene for just a few more decades?"
"If they return, we would have more than just a few million deaths on our hands. A billion easily. Hell, humanity could end up like our Hylobo friends, virtually eradicated. We have a chance of almost eighty percent that we could save a whole generation. That's how I see it. Two or three more decades to prepare at least. Remember this wouldn't be the first time we dodged the bullet. Chances are that before those extra decades are over we could devise another political prolongation."
The elderly woman sitting next to the chairman rolled her eyes.
"Please, William, you know better than to refer to our political adventure as a success. Yes, emissions were never bigger than under his presidency, but we managed to unite the whole world against our cause with that. And besides, there are no more superpowers. The terms of the Bratislava peace treaty don't even allow conurbation states with more than five million inhabitants to exist anymore. Let alone nation states or federal governments like the old United States of America. Only New Zion remains as a power to reckon with and we all know our chances of infiltrating their government structures are pretty slim. No, the chance of us pulling off another electoral intervention is virtually zero right now. And they are unlikely to get much better over the next two or three decades. Seriously William, where is your mind at?"
The chairman took a deep breath.
"Yes, I might have been a bit optimistic about that one. But we will figure something out. Remember how we solved the 1969 moon crisis? Our society has what it takes to get out of tight spots. We always have. We always will. I think we should bring this to a vote right now. Unless there are any other proposals, we should vote on the Eiffel scenario. Buy ourselves another few decades and trust we will figure out how to further divert a full-blown ice age as we move forward."
Bjarne got a bit agitated about the chairman pushing this issue and jumped up.
"Mister Chairman. I believe a unilateral decision regarding this scenario would not land well with our... friends. If anything we should vote about discussing this scenario within the committee. But aside from that, I believe there is still another scenario we might want to explore."
"Professor Fjelstad, I think you are out of line!"
"William!" The elderly woman spoke in a raised voice. "Let the man speak, will you? Please Bjarne, tell us about the other option."
"Solar pivots. I remember this Idea from when I was still a young man. My mentor had proposed solar pivots as a possible precautionary measure. They were uneconomical in 2005 but we didn't have 3d printing drone swarms in those days and the issue wasn't as pressing as it is now. I believe if we could print ourselves solar pivots that we position in strategic places in the northern seas, we might be able to keep the Holocene's sea-current-engine running indefinitely. At least as long as we can get greenhouse gas emissions above the threshold level again and keep them there."
Bjarne pushed his tablet towards Ian, showing old design blueprints for an aquatic installation of almost unimaginable scale. Ian looked at Bjarne in surprise. His mentor had more tricks up his sleeve than Ian had given him credit for.
"Please show these blueprints to our chairman, will you Ian."
As Ian stood up and walked towards the place the chairman was sitting he couldn't help but glance through the designs. These structures were massive. Above the surface solar heat collectors and an intricate system of pipes and heat conductors designed to guide an unimaginable flow of water. If the world's sea currents were one huge Holocene sustaining engine, this contraption was both a starting engine and indeed a pivot. Ian didn't understand the design completely, but if this worked… So Buzz Aldrich had come up with this design way back at the turn of the Century? Wow.
"Thank you kid, the chairman spoke." As the chairman looked at the drawings his mouth fell open and he looked intensely at Bjarne.
"We can't pull this off! We just can't!"
"Well, not covertly Bjarne responded. Not without their help that is."
A huge grin formed on Bjarne's face.
"I would suggest we bring both the Eiffel methane scenario and my solar pivot scenario to the attention of our friends. I bring this as motion before the assembly of the Ragnarok society and request it be brought to a vote."
Ian looked at Bjarne in awe of his mentor. As he looked around the room he saw three dozen people nodding quietly. Only the chairman wasn't nodding. He was just sitting there staring at Bjarne.
"William!" The elderly lady spoke softly as she gently touched the Chairman's shoulder.
The chairman turned towards the ladies gently smiling face. He frowned for a moment, then looked back intensely at Bjarne for a second.
"Motion forty-one-thousand-twenty-seven on the subject of bringing solar-pivots versus the Eiffel methane release scenario before the interspecies committee.
Assembly members, raise your right hand if you wish to support the motion."
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