It's just a few hours before the awards are given out, so I'll keep this short and fairly simple. But I want to share my predictions for some of the major categories for the 2018 Oscars.
Best Picture: The Shape of Water
Lead Actor: Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour
Lead Actress: Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water
Best Director: Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water
Original Screenplay: Jordan Peele for Get Out
Experts are leaning toward Get Out and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri for Best Picture. Get Out is an odd film to even be nominated. The script is pretty good as is Daniel Kaluuya's performance, but the film is more of a horror flick than the sort of film that typically wins an Oscar and is not the sort of film that belongs on the list of best films ever.
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri has gotten more attention than I think it deserves. The script feels empty and leaves me disappointed. Frances McDormand is fabulous as always but I wouldn't put this on the list of her most memorable roles.
The Post feels forced. Obviously lots of good acting talent but the story feels much less compelling than it should be. I feel the same way about Dunkirk--a well-done film but it leaves me feeling unsatisfied.
The Shape of Water is simply the most satisfying film of those nominated. It's got an interesting, somewhat quirky story and superb acting by lead actress Sally Hawkins. Guillermo del Toro's direction is also very well done.