The German import price data is expected to be released today at 0600 GMT. According to the economists polled, import prices are forecast to decline 0.3% in the month of February. This would mark a modest correction to January's headline print of 0.7% on the year. Import prices were seen rising 0.5% on the month ending January 2018.
[Image credit: euroexchanger]
The decline in the import prices are expected as preliminary data from both the Eurozone and Germany showed that the strong start to the economic growth was losing momentum by February.
This comes amid rising global uncertainty related to the policies from the United States. Given the fact that the exchange rate in the euro has also been stronger, the higher exchange rate has put a dent in the export markets. Last week, data from the ZEW economic institute from Germany showed that business confidence for the future fell sharply on account of the policies from Washington.
President Trump had initially announced tariffs on steel and aluminum exports to the U.S. and also followed by hitting China with new tariffs up to $60 billion. As a result, policy makers and businesses especially in the Eurozone are concerned about trade which could hit the recovery in the Eurozone.
[Image credit:www.faniacialspreds.com]
Besides the import price data, flash inflation estimates from Spain will potentially set the trend on how consumer prices behaved in the month of February. The higher exchange rate in the euro is also expected to slow down the pace of increase in inflation.
Based on the above, today's binary signal is EURGBP. The euro has been seen trading weaker against the British pound due to the BoE signaling one more rate hike this year and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit was also starting to clear.
The currency pair was seen drifting flat following the doji candlestick pattern formed few days ago. With price action trading at support near 0.8745, we expect the upside to prevail.
[Image credit: chart from fxcm]
Therefore, we are looking to purchase daily CALL options at 0.8750 for a 20:00 GMT expiry time as we expect EURGBP to close higher on the day.
Wishing you a successful trade ,
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