Headwinds and Horizons: The Long Road to Flying Cars
The Delay in Flying Cars
In his presentation, “Where is My Flying Car?,” Dr. J. Storrs Hall argued that the predictions in the 1960s regarding flying cars were correct. Prior to the 1960s, there had been many significant strides in development. Dr. Hall explained that if this pattern had maintained its trajectory, we would have flying cars by now. However, there were some disturbances to the momentum that have delayed flying cars from becoming a reality.
The Flatline of the Industrial Revolution
Dr. Hall contended that if the Industrial Revolution had maintained its momentum, flying cars would be viable. One cause of the flatline was increased regulation and liability exposure. This led to societal changes, including decreased self-reliance and responsibility, increased tolerance of bureaucracy, and a shift from classic religion to environmentalism and other ideologies. Life became more comfortable, and people were wealthier. This caused the two basic levels of Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs, physiological and safety needs, to be taken for granted. The cumulative effect of the societal changes was that less importance was placed on innovation and development.
Another factor in the flatline of the Industrial Revolution was the Machiavelli Effect. Machiavelli said, “there is nothing more difficult or uncertain than to introduce change,” and the innovator creates enemies for themselves. This is because an innovator introduces changes that typically negatively affect those that are doing well at the time. The changes also commonly limit those who follow the innovator in the changes. This combination has the potential to discourage those who might otherwise pursue innovation.
The Death of the Atomic Age
The flatline of the Industrial Revolution slowed down innovation in an important industry related to flying cars- power. In the 1970s, the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission was established as a result of the Energy Reorganization Act of 1974 and led to skyrocketing costs for nuclear reactors. This discouraged investment and participation in nuclear science. Consequently, fewer students pursued degrees in physics and related disciplines, marking what Hall refers to as the “death of the atomic age.”
The Reality of Robotics
Robotics is another industry that is a key player in the progress towards flying cars. Dr. Hall assessed that the prediction from the 1960s related to robots was practically 100 percent correct. As we have seen, particularly in the last few years, artificial intelligence, and large language models (LLMs) have become more prevalent. LLMs are a crucial step towards intelligent general agents.
A Second Atomic Age?
A second atomic age would be an avenue for flying cars to become a reality. Nanotech could enable this, with help from nuclear sources, robots, and competent social decision making. **It would require extremely powerful technology, as well as the ability and desire of humans to focus on it. Wars are an example of how our social decision making is incompetent. It wastes time, energy, and other resources that could be spent on innovations. No matter how powerful our technology is, we are still responsible for using our resources in a way that moves toward innovation. Powerful technology is not enough on its own. **
Where is the Market?
Although we do not see flying cars today, there are companies that have been working on them. There have even been companies who have designed a flying car, but there has not been enough desire to make the high price worth it. A flying car is not something the average consumer currently desires or has the money for. Dr. Hall argued that we might be further along if the momentum from the Industrial Revolution had not been halted. Currently, the market and technology do not overlap enough to make flying cars a reality.
The Future
According to Dr. Hall, the future will look vastly different after there is significant innovation in technology. He said everything will be custom designed and built for time, place, purpose, and the user. We will be able to ask for anything and it will appear. He said we will be able to live anywhere and do anything with the innovations to come.
Conclusion
On one hand, I am more pessimistic about innovations in the future. I think there will continue to be “headwinds,” as Dr. Hall said, that slow down innovation and progress, and I think it will take longer than expected for the needed technology to happen. Especially in the area of regulation, it can be expected that inefficiencies in the government will keep innovation from happening quickly.
However, I am optimistic about the possibilities that could come from improved technology. Like Dr. Hall mentioned, there are many areas where technology can make the world better and save lives. The key will be whether we, as a society, choose to use it wisely and ambitiously.