By, MICHAEL WEDDLE · TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2017
I've always contended Turkey is in the driver's seat when it comes to Middle Eastern politics. Iran and Saudi Arabia seem eternally in conflict, with Yemen now in the cross hairs. Iraq, Syria and Lebanon only want to rebuild (China will help with this) after war has long ravaged their lands.
The US, which is responsible for much of the war borne misery, will be the odd man out. The present Turkish government, after long entertaining the Saudi-US pipeline deal that would have run through Syria into Turkey to supply Europe, presently has three problems with the US:
The government holds the US responsible for the recent coup attempt and continues to seek a smoking gun in the matter.
The Russian-Chinese One Belt, One Road (OBOR) project to re-open ancient Silk Road trading routes (land and sea), provides better long-term prospects for Turkey -- which controls entrance into the Black Sea. Overall, OBOR is a sweeter deal than oil which supposedly, until Trump came around, was in decline. The OBOR project is meant to rebuild inter-continental infrastructure with green technologies.
A Pew poll shows 72 percent of the Turkish population fear the United States. This is not surprising since a lot of us who live in the United States also fear the US. So not many US flags will ever get waived in Turkey -- I don't think we'd see many of them even if Turkey hosted a US soccer game!
However, NATO (rather, the US) has nukes stationed at Turkey's Ircilik air base which it rents to NATO. As it all stands, this is not a good idea. Were the US and NATO smart, they'd remove those nukes as rapidly as possible.
Perhaps the US was hoping it could build a strong military base in the SDF-Kurdish territory captured from Syria, but this seems doubtful given what happened to the Kurds in Iraq. By the way, Turkey has long been at odds with the Kurds and the US has been using them as proxy soldiers both in Iraq and Syria -- this is not helpful for US-Turkish relations!
I now see, for the future, Turkey in bed with Russia and China. Turkey has become yet another nation wishing the US would just go away!
Ideally, Turkey, following its next election, could possibly help to broker peace (with Russia and China in support) between Iran and the Saudis. Remember, controlling access to the Black Sea and with lots of coast line along the Mediterranean Sea are a couple of nice cards that Turkey holds in the worldwide poker game.
The Saudis after losing in Syria, being deadlocked in Yemen and with a new political regime in the mill, just might well go for it. The introduction of the new Eurasian currency hitting the markets in 2018 will compete with the US-backed Petro Dollar. This new currency could become a crucial factor for the Saudis as they might opt for a different kind of future.
Iran? Iran pretty much just wants to left alone and free to trade with its partners. Iran is also a key nation for the OBOR project as it is a gateway into The Stan region. I predict eventually both Europe and India will sense the wisdom of OBOR and also join. The project has the potential to help eliminate or stalemate long-held rivalries.
If the Saudis can resist its temptation -- fueled by the US and Israel -- against Iranian-supported Hezbollah in Lebanon, the new Saudi regime just might see a better future, especially if they perceive Turkey is in the driver's seat for the region.
http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_turkey_us_relations_locked_into_a_downward_spiral_7232