Overall there is strength in the USD, JPY, with minor strength in EUR. Weakness in the GBP, AUD, and NZD.
US dollar rose against other major currencies for a third day, propelled by rallying US bond yields. Also, it was supported by upbeat economic data, which served to raise expectations of further interest rate increases by the US federal Reserve.
GBP/USD continued to defy fundamentals. In March, retail sales fell -1.2%, which was twice the amount economists anticipated.
EUR/USD’s attempt to break above 1.24 ended in failure, for the fourth day in a row. There are clearly a lot of option barriers and stops being aggressively defended at that level. Currently, it is off a low of 1.2327 but remains capped by the descending 20-period moving average.
RSI is still subdued at levels below the neutrality level of 50. Strong intraday bearishness persists, and the pair is expected to sink further toward 1.2305. Only a break above the key resistance at 1.2365 would turn the outlook bullish again.
On the data slate there’s German PPI; UK BOE’s Saunders Speaks in Glasgow; Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence and US Baker Hughes US Rig Count.
BUY EUR/USD @ 1.2330 OR BETTER – STOP @ 1.2280 – TARGET @ 1.2450
BUY GBP/USD @ 1.4060 OR BETTER – STOP @ 1.4005 – TARGET @ 1.4265
SELL USD/JPY @ 107.50 OR BETTER – STOP @ 107.90 – TARGET @ 106.50
BUY CL0618 @ 68.10 OR BETTER – STOP @ 67.70 – TARGET @ 70.00
BUY AUD/USD @ 0.7700 OR BETTER – STOP @ 0.7660 – TARGET @ 0.7820
BUY XAU @ 1340 OR BETTER – STOP @ 1335 – TARGET @ 1362
BUY XAG @ 17.00 OR BETTER – STOP @ 16.50 – TARGET @ 17.85
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