USD/JPY Price forecast for the week of March 5, 2018, Technical Analysis
The US dollar has initially tried to rally during the week but found the 107.50 level to be far too resistive. Ultimately, we have pulled back to reach towards major support. With the tariffs being levied out of the United States, there has been a bit of a “risk off” attitude.
The US dollar has initially tried to rally against the Japanese yen during the week but found the 107.50 level to be far too resistive. We turned around from there and felt towards the 105 level, which coincides with a very nice uptrend line. I think this is going to be a very important area to watch, because if we break down below the uptrend line and the 105 level, the market is probably going to wipe out the entire move to the upside, reaching down towards the 100 level again. That would be a very strong sell signal, and at that point I would become aggressively short of this market.
Alternately, if we bounce from here, it could be a longer-term “buy-and-hold” situation where we could reach high as 107.50, and then eventually the 110 level after that. Ultimately, I believe that the market will find plenty of reasons to go higher, but if we get the breakdown could take a while to form enough momentum to turn around to the upside again. I believe there is a significant decision to make soon, so I think that given enough time, and the next impulsive candle, this will tell us where we are going for the next several months. The markets continue to be very shaky in the moment, so I think that a bit of patience may be necessary. However, the next move should make itself obvious soon.