Will electric powered airplanes dominate the sky in 2075? The optimist will say, "even Elon Musk says if he had to start another company today, he would consider the electrification of air travel". It is an imperative to improve our environment and significantly reduce the need for fossil fuels. For the skeptics, the question itself raises questions from experienced passengers who think, " I can't imagine having no backup plan should the electrical systems fail...for larger passenger planes, we will need some sort of hybrid system". While the skeptic's thinking may seem stuck in the past, particularly as others probably may have thought the same way about fuel powered airplanes in the early 1900's, we must consider three factors in answering this question. What are the technologies that must progress to make electric planes possible? What is the timing? and, What other technologies will compete to achieve the same objective? I will briefly summarize the state of each question below.
Technology: To get the thrust required to take off, we need to store significant electrical energy in the form of super capacitors. We have significant progress to make in creating super capacitors for such applications. Assisted take off from technology like rail guns could conceivably provide the required boost with new airport infrastructure. We must also consider hybrid systems that can take the waste or proximity of a plane in flight and turn it into energy. Solar charging seems obvious given that most airplanes spend the majority of the flight above the clouds. Drag would seem to be a recoverable source. Scientists are working on coatings today that capture charge as air flows over the surface of the paint. It would seem logical that airplanes could be covered in such a technology to recover and charge super capacitors. Weight savings will also be a driver with the continuous effort to introduce advanced composite materials to require less power for lift-off. One would expect the adoption of these technologies to show up in smaller, regional aircraft before moving to the wider body aircraft that must clear oceans in flight.
Timing: The timing for such technologies are unknown. It is conceivable that the continued investment and advancement of such technologies will take place in the coming years. Other macroeconomic factors will probably have a bigger impact on the timing. Many economists see the electrification and autonomous driving of passenger cars, transport, and utility vehicles as a major driver in creating peak demand for oil. This, coupled with large land masses like the United States and Russia having the capability to horizontally drill for oil (increasing supply), may keep oil prices historically low between now and 2075. Lower oil prices may impede investment in the required technologies above, and keep them as having a return on the smaller passenger, regional planes.
Competing Technology: High-speed travel, like Elon Musk's vision for the Hyperloop, may provide the same benefit of regional flights more economically. High-speed rail systems run off of the grid power today. The grid is generating more energy from lower-cost, renewable sources. So long as high-speed systems can compete with the total travel time of air travel, and find the necessary space (land usage zoning, boring underground, etc.), these systems seem to be a formidable competitor for small and medium sized aircraft. High-speed systems crossing over or under oceans is another technical challenge. This leaves the competition for larger, wide-body aircraft less clear in the coming years.
One may conclude that smaller scale aircraft will continue to emerge with electrical power instead of fuel before 2075. 2075 may not be long enough to develop the technology to convert wide body aircraft completely to electrically powered. I believe we will see a mixture of high-speed travel, electrically powered small and regional passenger aircraft, and hybrid technologies on wide-body aircraft for trans-oceanic or long haul flights in 2075. Some would say time well tell. I believe the talented people reading this article will decide.
Jonathan DeLine is the President & CEO of BETA Fueling Systems (www.betafueling.com). BETA is a company engaged in creating aviation refueling equipment and providing solutions for the future of aviation travel. Here are some other interesting links on electric airplanes:
http://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/electric-planes-easyjet-wright-electric-battery-powered-a7646701.html
https://weflywright.com/