What will the most common names be in the year 2070?

Starting this off, the most common names of 2020.

Girls

1. Olivia
2. Emma
3. Ava
4. Charlotte
5. Sophia
6. Amelia
7. Isabelle
8. Mia
9. Evelyn
10. Harper “funny thing writing this is last two names are the mom from Two & a Half Men”

Boys

1. Liam
2. Noah
3. Oliver
4. Elijah
5. William
6. James
7. Benjamin
8. Lucas
9. Henry
10. Alexander

Best way to figure out the most common names going forward in the future is a check at the names of 1970.

Girls

1. Jennifer
2. Amy
3. Melissa
4. Michelle
5. Kimberly
6. Lisa
7. Angela
8. Heather
9. Stephanie
10. Nicole

Boys

1. Michael
2. Christopher
3. Jason
4. David
5. James
6. John
7. Robert
8. Brian
9. William
10. Matthew

And for fun, the most popular names of 1920.

Girls

1. Mary
2. Dorothy
3. Helen
4. Betty
5. Margaret
6. Ruth
7. Virginia
8. Doris
9. Mildred
10. Frances

Boys

1. Robert
2. John
3. James
4. William
5. The greatest name ever
6. George
7. Joseph
8. Richard
9. Edward
10. Donald

Obvious observations here.

Boys names tend to age better and most boys names are more in line with each other. If someone told me the 1920 list was the 2020 list, I’d not question it at all.

1920 girls names compared to 2020 girls names is a totally different story. The 1920 names are for lack of a better word/expression “old lady names”. The 1970 names also feel like they are out of a Stranger Things episode and a time capsule.

Reason for this is boys names are commonly named after parents, grandparents and other relatives. Girls names normally have a bigger pop culture impact and celebrities, movie characters and even songs can impact that. This makes girls names more likely to shuffle, where it’s fair to guess a complete change in 2070, but boys names will probably stay more in line with James, William, Robert and more.

Predicting pop culture in 50 years is pretty hard, but one thing we can do is look at demographic changes.

Olivia, Mia, Evelyn, Isabelle & Sophia while all having many white people with those names, they are undeniably a bit more ethnic over the names of 1970 or 1920.

Henry is also a weird one, because it’s an impact from demographic changes in a strange way. While the name is traditionally white, many Asian families are picking it as a name for their kids and the name has resurfaced from being the whitest name on earth to a first name more common in Asian culture.

To get an idea of where we’re going for racial breakdowns, I found one study showing America in 1965 versus today.

White people go from 62% of the population to 48%.
Hispanic people go from 18% to 24%.
Black people go from 12% to 14%.
The Asian population more than doubles from 6% to 14%.

And this isn’t factoring in the massive population shift to mixed race homes, which will be about one in five households in some form.

For those changes, I can’t predict every name, but it’s very likely Juan, Jose or Miguel which are the top 3 for Hispanic Americans names join the top 10.

Asian names could also be a big change, where now Henry, Peter, Andrew, Albert & Eric are the most common names for newborn Asian American kids. I could see a pretty huge change though where we see a trend in more culturally traditional names once that population gains double digit status. Lee, Kim, Jin & Chao could all become way more popular.

All said and done though, it’s still sort of impossible to predict. Looking at ethnic changes gets a good crack, but really doesn’t tell much. Why names such as Elijah, Olivia, Liam or Emma have popped up so much is anyone’s best guess. Very likely in 2070, there will be a bunch of names no one could guess taking the top 10.