If you've been paying attention to the top ten Market cap (or any of the cryptosphere lately) you know that LINK has been on a serious tear recently. However, just as quickly as the coin has run up, it has begun its descent back to a more reasonable level.
What level is that?
If I were to venture a worthless guess based on what I'm seeing here, $7.50 has a little support, while $4 has massive support.
$4 LINK makes sense.
During the COVID crash LINK fell all the way down to $1.50. During that time Hive also fell to pretty much all time lows. What happened then? Both Hive and Link both had this crazy x10+ action happen with a swift crash afterwards.
x10 rule
When one of these things goes x10 quickly... it's pretty much guaranteed to tumble. Someone with a big bag is going to take gains and crash the party with a domino effect. I couldn't believe that people were still gung-ho bullish on Link even after hitting $20. No matter how often these pump/dumps happen, people keep doing the same mental gymnastics over and over again. We need to profit from that weak play.
It's because people have time to hype themselves up during the upswing. People say there will be a dip at $13.50, and then it doesn't happen... Okay, surely there must be a dip at $17... and then it spikes to $20 and you're like FUCK IT LET IT RIDE TO THE MOON. That's when you know the party is over.
Rule of 3
We also see the rule of 3 applying to this run up. There are three big bursts up in a short amount of time and then the price finally crashes. It's honestly crazy how these patterns seem to play out and no one seems to notice (especially not while it's happening and at best in retrospect like I am now).
There are a few situations where a network can go more than x10 in a short time. Nano went around x100 during 2017. However, that was a totally different scenario. Bitcoin running up with altcoins can change the game and send the waves higher. When Bitcoin is trading relatively flat like it is now x10 is pretty much the best you're gonna do.
No reason to get greedy.
In fact, even in the extreme outlier case of Nano it only took 6 months for the network to crash back down to that x10 level, a few months later it crashed even lower to x5, and a full year later it was x3 from where it was at the base of the 2017 spike.
Therefore, even in the extreme outlier cases, selling at x10 is going to net you a profit if you just wait it out and don't panic; simple as that. x10 has never been sustainable over a one year period. It will ALWAYS break down lower. Are there exceptions? Doesn't matter. The exception proves the rule in this case.
Link breakdown
There are a ton of reasons why Link cannot sustain the level that its at. The most obvious is the fear of a dump. Only 350M coins out of a billion are even in circulation. Spoiler alert: that's even worse than Ripple's XRP. This is a completely centralized project at the moment.
It doesn't do anything
Link price is based 100% on fluff and speculation. It has a lot of unrealized potential. Name a single Link service that has value. You can't. Most people don't even know what Link does; they just see the price spike and freak out.
https://twitter.com/FinanceLeo/status/1296876642229538819
- FinanceLeo
Even the fundamentals of Link are speculation, because there aren't any valuable apps using the network. Investors are speculating on fundamentals and calling it fundamental investment. A good idea can go to shit instantly when applied to the real world and all the nuances required. This is even more true in the cryptosphere where the technical aspects are mind-boggling. Sounds like a good idea, until it isn't.
I'm not saying Link is going to fail. In fact if it actually did what they set out to do (link real-world information with all blockchains with 100% accuracy/trust) then the project would flip Bitcoin immediately.
Expectations meet reality.
Their ideal goal is impossible. It's a question of how close they are going to get that will measure their success, and that is all speculation at the moment.
Conclusion
When a project goes x10, take some gains, plain and simple. I would never suggest moving all in or all out of a project at once, but if you like to gamble that's obviously the way to do it. Then again, the best gambling strategy is often to play it safe. This is an emotional containment contest, if you put yourself on tilt by taking a big loss you are going to miss out on even more gains later down the road.
My official price prediction for Link is a crash to $7-$8. It doubling that $4 baseline is a common occurrence. It happened to Hive when we doubled from 10 cents to 20 cents, but in between we had that insane x10.
Unfortunately Bitcoin is a wildcard, and if the price of Bitcoin starts spiking up from $12k all bets are off and who knows what the alt market will do. I've already written a lot of predictions about how Bitcoin hitting ATH of $20k will send the alt-market into a frenzy because a lot of Bitcoiners would turn bearish and looking to find alts that may spike up even more, just like our other alt-markets have been.
I guarantee the price of everything will go up, down, or sideways.
Nuff said.