As a game collector, I hate seeing the industry shift towards an all-digital future. I want to own my games on a format I can quickly and easily go back to whenever I want to revisit a game from 10-20+ years ago. The industry, and increasingly gamers, seem to be more than happy with changing to the more convenient digital download format. Gamers can get the newest games without leaving their house or waiting for a package to arrive in the mail. Game publishers earn way more money by cutting out the cost of physically producing their games and killing off the used game market entirely.
Not everyone is on board with this change, but its going to keep moving that way, and fast. By the year 2020 or so, we're going to be hearing rumors about the next generation of game consoles. Will they even have physical media drives? Let's look at both side of the argument.
Why they won't support physical media
The industry is heavily pushing us towards going 100% digital. They earn far more money from sales and they gain a stronger control over their product. Game publishers really want to kill off physical games and will use their influence to push hardware developers to ditch the drives.
Lots of gamers have fully embraced all-digital as well due to the benefits of having all their games accessible without searching for discs or carts and the ability to buy games from their couch. As we've seen happen to both music and movies, we're willing to make compromises in quality and flexibility in exchange for convenience.
Why they will support physical media
Millions of homes don't have a dedicated or fast enough Internet connection that's required to go all-digital. A big chunk of the market will have no access to new games if they don't have the means to download them. There's also the collectors, like myself, who much prefer to buy a game they can keep, trade, lend or resell. Digital removes all of those rights in favor of convenience. I've held off buying games I really wanted hoping that a physical release was announced. I'm glad I didn't buy Snipperclips digitally, as a physical version was just announced that will include the upcoming DLC.
Another consideration is that retailers will not have much incentive to sell game consoles if they can't sell games. Retailers basically make no profits on the sale of video game hardware -- its more or less used as a means to sell the games. Without games to sell, retailers are going to use that space to sell something they can actually make money on, like cell phones or TVs.
My honest prediction
When the next generation of Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft consoles arrives, here's what I think each is going to do.
Microsoft goes all digital
The Xbox platform seems to attract more gamers that are drawn to 'yearly update' games like first person shooters, sports titles and racing games. These types of games are far more disposable and forgotten once the new iteration is released, which leads me to believe the next Xbox will be 100% digital. They wanted to go that way this gen, but jumped the gun.
Sony pushes digital, but keeps a disc drive
Sony is more of an everyman's console, so they need to keep a retail presence. There are far more games that I'd consider 'collectible' on the Playstation, with the large number of niche Japanese games, RPGs and other types of games that more people want to own and keep. In addition, its a powerful piece of owning the disc format war and the next Playstation will inevitably have a 4K blu-ray drive to push adoption of this format.
Nintendo stays primarily physical
Nintendo fans are the most attached to physical media, with the huge number of retro game collectors and gamers who love filling their shelves games. While Nintendo will keep pushing digital, they've been far behind Sony and Microsoft when it comes to their online presence and functionality.
The Future
Regardless of where the industry goes, I'm first and foremost a game collector. I want to own the games that I play on a format I can hold, display and keep in my game library. If the future is all digital, I won't be following along. There's thousands of games that have been published on cartridge and disc waiting to be enjoyed and I can't wait to experience them.