No sooner had the first week of the new 2021 passed when another act of political drama around President Donald Trump took place in the United States. On Wednesday, January 6, his supporters stormed the country's parliament building, disrupting the vote to confirm Joe Biden's victory in the presidential election. During the occupation of Congress, the gold rate rose to $ 1957 per ounce.
Quotes subsequently fell to $ 1,913 an ounce as Trump called on the protesters to order, effectively admitting defeat while continuing to talk about electoral fraud. Besides, the parliamentarians still approved Biden's victory after the end of the assault.
The yellow precious metal is not yet pleasing to analysts. Most of them predicted a rise in the exchange rate to $ 2,000 by the end of last year, but 2020 ended below the $ 1,900 mark. In early 2021, quotes were slowly creeping up against the backdrop of geopolitical instability and a decrease in the US currency index, while remaining in the range of $ 1900-1950 per ounce. Large foreign investors in the futures market fix profits now at any rate jump. However, now the gold market will depend on geoeconomic factors, as there has been relative calm in the political arena in the United States, and Trump has been blocked from accessing social media (Twitter, Facebook and Instagram).
The precious metal rate in 2021 will go up due to inflation and problems with the recovery of the world economy. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), $ 12 trillion was pumped into the world financial markets. dollars in 2020. This is explained by the fact that the authorities tried to stabilize the economy hit by the pandemic with economic incentives. At the same time, the balance sheet of the US Central Bank increased to a record high, exceeding the $ 7 trillion mark. dollars. In such an environment, and also in anticipation of generous economic stimulus from the Biden administration, inflation will rise in 2021. Most likely, this will happen along with the economic recovery in the second half of the year.
However, it should be borne in mind that according to the forecasts of the World Bank, the world economy will grow by only 4% in 2021 after contracting by 4.3% last year. The organization's analysts say that their optimistic forecast is based on an organized and decisive fight against the coronavirus and the successful vaccination of the population around the world. However, in most countries, even those considered to be developed, there are problems in these areas: new quarantine restrictions have been introduced, vaccination has been suspended due to logistics difficulties, etc. Consequently, the rate of gold may reach the level of $ 2,500 per ounce in the second half of the year amid rising inflation and a slow economic recovery. Achievement of this mark will mean a 30% increase in 2021, which is broadly similar to the upward trend of last year.
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