Ray Dalio is a legend in the investment community. His firm, Bridgewater Associates manages approximately $154 billion in global investments and he's written a book about debt cycles. They are patterns that can be seen again and again, and he's sharing his findings with the world to help people. He even offers his book for free.
He says that we have 6 stages in every debt cycle. In the beginning stages, money is being borrowed to produce income and productive returns. Debt payments are easily made and the value of everything is going up. That leads into the bubble phase, where the prevailing thought is that prices will continue to rise, so people borrow more and more money.
Then, we get into the 3rd phase of the cycle, which is the top. Dalio says this is typically the phase where central banks put on the brakes and begin to tighten monetary policy by printing less money and raising interest rates. Then, the slide down begins into recession or depression, where interest rates are lowered again in an attempt to re-inflate the economy.
Dalio says that we are currently in an economic environment that is very similar to the 1930's.
In the thirties the United States went through a surge of populism and nationalism because of the widening wealth gap between rich and poor. Tensions not only rise between people domestically, but also create global economic tensions that often lead to war.
Click the link above to hear the interview.
He says that we're currently in a time of established power being challenged by emerging powers. The current trade war that our administration is waging against China and international economies is exactly what he is talking about.
Another legendary investor, Jim Rogers believes that the trade war will be the catalyst that causes the great reset, or economic depression that is coming.
Dalio compares our current economic expansion to a baseball game, saying that we are currently in the 7th inning of a 9 inning game. He points out that we have squeezed just about all of the productivity that we can out of our economy and as interest rates rise and normalize, prices will naturally fall.
He says that a downturn is coming and that the tools the federal reserve and other central banks used to stoke the economy last time, will not be as effective this next time.
Within the next two years the federal reserve will have drastically slowed lending money to the U.S. government, so in order to service current debt levels, our government must look abroad to sell treasury bonds and borrow money. Our government needs to borrow so much money every single day just to keep the lights on, he believes it will become increasingly difficult to find foreign money to buy our bonds, thereby driving interest rates up.
When interest rates go up it becomes more expensive to borrow and economies contract because there's less commerce. He says that will also drag down the value of the dollar, thereby making everything more expensive for the people of this country.
He says that other countries currencies are currently being squeezed by their even more obnoxious levels of debt and that is driving the value of the dollar higher in the short run, but that should all change within the next two years.
The interviewer asks him what changes we can make to be prepared for what is coming and one of the things that Dalio says, is that people must be made useful. People must be employed so the government has revenue through income taxation.
He declares this issue a national emergency and points out the troubles within our educational system. Did you receive an education that prepared you for adult life?
He says our national debt is so out of control that higher taxes are probably necessary, but that the real solution is unleashing people's productivity. He says that we must make our educational system a priority, so that students are prepared to be as productive as possible, once they are part of the workforce.
He goes on to say that trying to time the financial markets is an extremely difficult thing to do and that the average person should avoid it. His company, Bridgewater Associates currently employs 1600 people who are playing that game, so he knows what he's talking about.
He says it's tough for the average Joe to keep up because you have to examine employment, capacity, what the central bank is doing, the amount of debt used to finance asset purchases, investor and consumer sentiment, and by comparing the yields of stocks and bonds to their prices.
This kind of stuff is either far too complicated, or just uninteresting to the average person, so the best thing they can do is balance their portfolios and take steps necessary to protect their income. Or, be like most people and ignore what's coming and take the brunt of the next recession.
It's important to remember that phenomenally wealthy investors get that way by having cash to buy trophy assets, when there's blood in the streets and everyone is selling.
Not many of the economists I follow agree and feel that we have two years left before tough economic times arrive. Many believe that we are years overdue and are quite afraid. If economic mother nature is held at bay for another two years, the reversion of asset prices to the mean will be even more severe.
I assume you are reading this because you are on a mission to be informed. The informed know that a recession and even great depression is right around the corner and they are taking measures to protect themselves. What steps can you take to protect your family's income?
What will you do today to prepare for the tough economic times of tomorrow?
My family has chosen to invest in precious metals, a little Bitcoin, shares of companies that sell products and services that people must have, and we have done our best to diversify into multiple sources of income.
The ability to make money online is one of our most valuable safety nets.
The time to prepare is before disaster strikes, not after! Click https://lp.islandtimeliving.com/lp-prepare to learn how to protect your income using the internet.
Matt Nathanson
Island-Time Living
Freedom Through Digital Education