Whenever I can't sleep or feel my brain running too many ''apps'', I know it's time to run a market analysis and see what's going on.
Let's look at the big ones first. This morning put in a huge Crash for silver. Manipulated? Unsure. It definitely feels like a shakeout to me.
SILVER
Looking at silver, we can see that it has dropped all the way down to it's 76.4% Fibonnaci retracement level. It plummetted below this on the weekly chart to something like 14.4, but the daily is only showing a drop to 15.3. Either way, this is a strong support line that I think (hope?) will hold. 93% retracement is strong, but I'd rather not test it! Overall, for metals reversals, silver has led the way since 2016. I will be looking to play this by buying into leveraged miners, most specifically bear creek. BCEKF
Gold
Looking at gold. Gold is consolidating in a triangle formation. It looks as though it will stay in this zone until it runs out of time in late 2018. If we get a break above or below this triangle, followed by a successful retest, we will finally have a direction that the market has chosen.
iGold
The guys at iGold are recommending shorts all last week in anticipation of a bigger drop in gold down to the rising trend line around 1183. This is a strong multi-level support zone I mentioned back in 2015 and 2016. It has proven a powerful reversal line.Gary Savage
Gary is waiting for another failed daily cycle to break the May and December lows. As of this morning, gold and silver have broken their respective May and Silver Lows. I believe he will be going long very shortly here.MMT Trader
Michael Norman is not a gold bug but sees a large potential short squeeze forming as big producers hedge their gold sales. The Comex now has very little supply to cover the demand of all the hedging. One big buyer could come in and create a squeeze. He recommends getting back long right now.Conclusion
I think this is as good an opportunity as ever to be getting back into gold with leveraged positions. There is a strong possibility of a further drop to 1183. If this does happen, we should all be buying.
Crude
Looking at Crude: I made a call back in 2016 that crude had bottomed and would be bouncing between 40-60$ for the foreseeable future. It can't go too high because there is overproduction and storage is at maximum capicity.... but it can't go too low, because then all the midwestern banks in the USA would go bankrupt from their overleveraged bets on shale oil. (Most people don't even realize how close we were to a banking collapse in 2016 because of this.) This dynamic, I believe, forced the US Fed and banks to buy up the commodities index, saving the collapse of oil prices, and simultaneously supporting the baby-bull rally in Gold prices.
At this point, Crude has bounced off solid fibonacci support. I continue to expect a run up to 60$ ish. I will not be buying because I don't want to be a buyer or seller in the middle of a market. I want to catch it at extremes. I will be looking to be a seller on a big oil rally.
VIX
The Volatility index is showing us extreme market complacency. I watch this indicator to get a general reading on the overall US/World Stock markets. At this point, almost all markets are running for all time highs or making new ones every week. Despite this, there is no sense of euphoria, even when you watch the CNN money shows. There might be a 10% drawback soon to a fibonacci support level, but there will not be a 2001/2008 style drop until we achieve a euphoric market.
However, when it happens, it will be massive. VIX has only been this low for long periods of time in the late 1990s and 2007 and probably 1927! When it happens, prepare to ride it down and pick up Blue Chip Dividend Stocks for cheap!
USDJPY
The USDJPY is the most interesting market in my opinion. The following charts show the exchange back to 1974. The USD ALWAYS goes down. Most interesting, (if the numbers are correct) is that the most recent rally in the USD ran into the down trend resistance line.... you guessed it.... FROM 1974! I expect the rally today to bounce off this line and continue the downtrend. Gold seems most correlated with the YEN price and UST Bond prices. This should prove bullish for gold.
All indicators point down for the USDJPY, unless these trend lines and fibonacci resistance levels are broken. Watch for this over the next few days/weeks.
1974 Trend Line:
1974 Trend Line: Zoomed in
USDJPY Fibonacci Retracement since 2015 High
Summary
I will be looking to enter the Gold bull market today or next week, buying BCEKF. If you appreciate my commentary, feel free to send me bitcoins. I've made some people some good money on previous calls. If you have any questions, find me on facebook JTtheAT.
Thank you. Goodluck
BTC Address: 17qr3wc7Q3Gnwe5JbkM53r9GYND57y5rqZ