There is a good chance that gold bottomed on July 10. I have been expecting this rally to rollover near 1250 but it just keeps going higher :) If there was another failed cycle coming then the rally should have topped out already, so the odds are likely that gold has started a new leg higher. However, the mining shares are still lagging suggesting that bulls need to be cautious.
GDX is still stuck in a triangle, the range is now $21 - $23. A strong breakout or breakdown of either side will determine the next direction in miners. I am no longer Bearish and will remain on the sidelines until there is a clear signal to go long GDX.