Last night in Ontario, Canada, the provincial Liberal Party got handed the tab for their years of borrowing from the future and bad governance. They got annihilated in the provincial election and do not even currently qualify for "official" party status after retaining only seven (7!) seats. I have not ever really been a huge fan of the outgoing government during their 15 years in power, during which time Ontario became the largest sub-sovereign debtor in the world (We're #1!). But what has been more interesting to me than watching them implode has been watching how they imploded not only on their poor track record but also on their sharply declining image and popularity. Incumbents have gotten trampled in the past without becoming so universally disliked. Example: Did that many people really hate George HW Bush in 1992? How have these Liberals and others become so wholly disliked?
I always like to look for a root cause and origin with such questions and it often becomes necessary to go further back into history to a time where Liberals and their political equivalents were not so disliked. In the 1990s for example, Canada's Federal Government was ruled by a strong Liberal Majority and people were generally happy. The economy was good, they worked hard to fix the budget and balance the books and even began to pay down the National Debt (yes, this was only 2 decades ago!). People eventually got tired of them and voted them out but it took the better part of a decade and a half and no one was really ready to physically throw them off of Parliament Hill when it was finally their time to depart. I started to think about them. And at the same time, I remembered that Bill Clinton was President of the United States and managed to govern (moral issues aside) quite effectively even when tasked with working with a Republican Congress. In more recent years, the US has experienced a tumultuous 8 years of a liberal democrat presidency and Canada is currently in the midst of an increasingly less likable Liberal majority in its Federal halls of power again.
So what has changed? Is there a common element that can help explain why the Lib/Dem brand is become so incredibly polarizing? I think what made some of the Liberal forays in Canada's past easier to like were that they had a brand of humbleness and sensibility that accompanied an inclination to good governance. Others may disagree. This is just my take. Liberals came into power and budgets got fixed. Welfare got reformed. Crime got punished. Social conservatives would never be truly happy but times were generally good. Some likable and charismatic leaders also played a part (Pierre Trudeau - the smarter father of Justin; Bill Clinton: Jean Chretien) but these were no cults of personality. They did certainly do things that made conservatives angry...BUT they also did things that made progressives/socialists/communists angry too. They cut spending at times. They entered foreign military engagements. They sometimes even battled with unions. They truly seemed to be centrist compromise specialists who seemed to spend at least some portion of their time seriously contemplating what was the right things to do in any given situation based on the interests of the people.
Nowadays, things have simply changed. In Ontario, it may have been the 2003 election of the Liberal Party. Nationally, it happened no later than the election of Justin Trudeau to be Prime Minister in 2015. It probably happened in 2001 when the Conservatives had the nerve to win a majority government. In the US it would be easy to say it happened in 2008 but really, it happened in November 2000, the night Bush "stole" the election. The "it" I am referring to is the decision to not just oppose conservatives, libertarians and their politics but to outright reject and loathe them. I think liberal governments in the North American part of the world started a self-destructive practice: They now HATE their opposition. They hate them with a passion that exceeds their passion for governance.
What I am suggesting is not that these parties will necessarily disappear from the political landscape nor that they will not win another election. Let's see how the Dems do in the 2018 Midterms. Then let's see how the Liberals do in Canada's next Federal election in 2019. What I am saying is they have destroyed what they were. In Canada, some arrogantly call them the "natural governing party (as if there is anything natural about a governing party). In the US, look at how states that used to vote Democrat in landslides fueled by the notion that they were the worker's party felt compelled to turn to Donald Trump for help in 2016 and may well not follow the media's direction for a "blue wave" in 2018.
Consider these takes:
- If the Democrats win back the US Congress in 2018, whether by a wave or other method, Trump won't govern at all. He might actually get undemocratically booted from office if they can get the impeachment process on track. There will be no repeat of Clinton working with Bob Dole and Newt Gingrich to do right by the populous (or to at least try). It will simply not be an option. The Democrats as currently constituted have no interest in allowing the President to do a single thing.
- The facade of being the party of the people and the compassionate politicians needs to be backed by at least some degree of substance. In Canadian Federal politics, Justin Trudeau is sinking fast. He might survive the next election because he started from a high point but his fall is definitely in progress. Aside from being an unimpressive and frankly, unintelligent, leader. He has also proven not to be the hopeful, positive, optimistic character that tried to portray on the campaign trail. He's been more interested in being Canada's highest elected SJW, living a life of luxury, taking selfies and silencing choice within his caucus. He hates any notion of conservative values. He forbids members of his caucus from expressing pro life views. Seriously, where did the semblance of balance go to?
- The political center has vanished in many instances. In the election last night, the Ontario Liberals ran hard left but got outflanked by the leftists. Marx may have thought these two political parties were a bit much. When a voter in Ontario looks and says, "I just want someone who will be sensible, balanced and do a good job," the voter is left puzzled by the complete lack of options (Psst, Liberals! That was your sweet spot). In a not very conservative province like Ontario, the Conservatives actually took control of the political center in this election and could solidify their grip if Liberals do not get back to their roots.
So where does this leave us? I would suggest that Conservatives would be wise to try to bring the centrist liberals into their realm. Perhaps not into their party but into a greater state of agreement. Alternatively, someone within their own ranks could realize that most of us do not want to be governed (if at all) by leftists or religious zealots and they could simply get back to finding their sweet spot. It might happen. If it does not, we might not have the same liberal political parties that most of us were raised on.