Today is a day for celebration!
For today the Bitcoin block reward get's cut in half!
During a time when the economy is collapsing and the Fed has declared infinite QE and 0% reserves, Bitcoin doubles down in the opposite direction and cuts inflation in half. The world is about to have a new reserve currency; one that can't be easily manipulated by the corrupt forces controlling this world.
Last night I was coming home from work and I started randomly talking to this lady I've never talked to since we both started there over 2 years ago. She noted the blood red moon on the horizon and said it must be a sign for something. Then she talked about religion and Jesus' return for a second.
I told her I wasn't religious but indeed many crazy things are going down. My mom is a Jehovah's Witness and they don't vote because "man's governments" are too corrupt and not to be validated. That's about the one thing I agree with on this front.
This feeds in nicely to crypto. Distributed ledger technology is a way to automate governance; to put our ideals in charge with hard-coded law rather than depend on a fallible human to enact said vision. Bitcoin is the most basic form of this concept. It worries about security and inflation control above all else. By making it as simple as possible there is a very good chance it survives the constant assaults of central bankers and their allies.
However, not all is unicorns and rainbows.
The halving is a very dangerous event. It is a bearish event that transforms itself into an extremely bullish event. Cutting miner rewards in half means there is far less incentive to protect the network from harm. It means the difficultly will be reduced and we will lose our precious hash power.
At the same time, we expect the value of Bitcoin to more than double because the halving exists. This means that in the long run our difficulty, hash power, and security should certainly experience a net gain overall. Where would Bitcoin be now if we didn't have the halving event?
I've personally made the claim that the halving event might be a mistake; that the value of this network doesn't come from limiting supply, but from the exponential expansion of the network. The halving only serves to make our lifeboat extremely volatile in choppy waters.
At the same time, I have to ask myself why I'm here.
I came here in 2017 for that exact reason. When Bitcoin hit $20k I was like "Wow, it's happening; Bitcoin is for real." It was the volatility that brought me in, so perhaps the halving event is absolutely necessary after all to ensure it gets the attention of the world as fast as possible.
Indeed, the stock-to-flow model implies that the halving is the number one reason we've had so many exponential gains. Bitcoin was worth $2 at the time of the first halving, so maybe that's true. However, going from a value of zero to $2 in four years is still quite impressive and exponential. The truth is, we'll never know for sure if the halving was necessary or not.
There are no do-overs.
What's done is done.
Are we in for a crash?
It appears as though we are trading under the doubling curve once again and this halving event is taking shape in almost the same way as the last one. If history rhymes, we'll get one last dump before the market levels off and begins its meteoric ascension.
What if history doesn't rhyme?
I've made some strong claims recently about Chaos Theory and how this halving event is going to shape out completely differently than the other two. All of the variables involved are completely different.
Prepare to be surprised. Even if history does repeat itself, this should still be surprising to us. Don't forget that the market at large looks at history as well and tries to play the system based off that knowledge. The knowledge of the past inevitably changes what happens in the future if enough people bet on it.
Conclusion
No matter what happens in the short-term, we all know what's coming 12-18 months down the road. All roads lead to Rome. The supply of Bitcoin is going to get choked out and we're going to need to engage in price discovery to figure out where that supply is going to meet demand.
Already math is being done to show that mining selling pressure after this halving is going to be dwarfed by centralized exchange selling pressure. Then there are companies like Binance (boo!) coming forward and admitting all their fees are localized to their own coin BNB which they manipulate to make even more money (meaning they aren't even selling BTC).
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $800 | $1600 | $3200 | $6400 | $12800 | $25600 | $51200 |
I will continue to assume that bitcoin will keep doubling in value every year on average until it breaks that trend. When it goes x10 higher than the doubling curve, it's time to sell and prepare for that year long bear market that stomps on all the noobies rushing into the inferno of hype.
During this next epic bull run, we need to prepare ourselves psychologically and perform the right actions despite the rollercoaster of emotions we are assaulted with. Personally, I plan on taking enough gains to make it through the bad year. Maybe I'll even be crypto rich enough to make it four years, quit my job, and work here full time and beyond.