Can a virus have an effect on the Crypto market?
What we have here is the first real chance to see what a virus can do to the crypto market. I guess the first thing we have to do is determine the level of the threat at hand. As i been watching very closely for about two full weeks now at first there seemed to be little threat as to how wide this could spread. However as the days go on the information giving both on an authorized news level as well as the unofficial level via the common person doing Youtube video's. Neither painting a very good outcome at this point. Containment over the next two weeks will be the most important part of this whole outbreak in general. Lets take a look at the number of cases by the day with a focus on just this week.
January 22nd - 9 dead 470 infected
January 23rd - 26 dead 830 infected
January 24th - 41 dead 1300 infected
January 25th - 56 dead 1975 infected
January 26th - 80 dead, 2761 infected
January 27th - 100 dead, 4500 infected
January 28th - 132 dead, 6055 infected.
What is most interesting i think is the rate of growth despite the measures taken to contain it. 20%-25% day over day is an absolute crazy number. Lets keep in mind these are official reported cases, not the number of infected people. Some reports though unofficial have the count at 90,000 which make sense to me because the hospitals only have so much capacity. Even if the precautions work and the number of new infected people start to shrink, death tolls are sure to raise for weeks to come if not months. These hospitals scare me completely, if your not infected do they send you home? after walking out of the most infected area's back into the public?
So how does this effect prices of crypto? Well as you know by now, transmission of the virus is person to person, any item passed between two people is a potential passing of the virus. Its not secret money is dirty to begin with and for this reason passing hard assets will be down to a minimum for two reasons. 1. Everybody will be stuck at home not spending money person to person. 2 Some items are already sold out like masks, forcing people to have them come by mail from different countries. So Master/Visa and crypto will all see a boost in usage the more widespread the virus becomes. Maybe 2-5% more usage does not sound like much, but it can raise prices much higher then that number suggests. Would you sell bitcoin if you know your area is next to become infected and you already witnessed people resorting to crypto to get the vital goods they need?
If the infected rate keeps climbing rapidly, expect this will cause bitcoin to be much more volatile then even its recent record suggests. The news alone will be a major driving factor in price. More infected, prices raise, drop in number of new cases would see equal declines. Bitcoin to currencies is also a major factor, again based on location and news so there will be a good exit strategy if timed correctly.
Normally this is where i give a prediction on price and time frame. Not only is it way to hard to call at this time but for humanity i would like to minimize speculation at this time. People are suffering and any little help we can give them is a step in the right direction. Please if you can accept crypto for vital goods being sent to china please do so. We should feel obligated to help the availability of said goods.
Note: I am not a financial expert, and the above is only my opinions. I also own less then $10 USD in bitcoin.
Be well, take care of those around you, and pray for everybody. Please share/resteem if you liked this post.