Image Source: Marca

An idea that once seemed like a fantasy, a joke even. The European Super League or the ESL for short is now closer than ever to be a thing. Legends, fans, pundits have spoken out. Twitter seemed to have been at war, it was even described as "nuclear war" by some. This is my attempt to understand the ESL and its cause and effect. As well as traps the new concept could be open to face.

Let's Start With The Cause

To understand anything, you must start with the cause. First of all, let's be clear, the ESL is all about money. It's not about European glory, otherwise, Spurs and Arsenal would be replaced by Ajax and Porto, teams who have actually won the UCL title before. The teams who did this were obviously picked by a simple search about who has the most income and who is more popular globally.

The way I see it, there are three reasons that started this at this point in time.

The Pandemic and Its Effect

When the pandemic started, everyone thought it would be just something that will go away within few months. But it is very clear now that it is not something going away any time soon. The effects of the pandemic harmed clubs at a deeper level than first thought, it is not just attendance. The prices of broadcasting went down, same with advertisement.

Ten out of the twelve clubs that founded the ESL are privately owned. Those clubs saw that the current model under which they operate no longer sustainable. They needed to raise their profits in order to improve their cash flow without having to beg players to lower their wages or consider them as loans should another disaster hit.

Simply put, the pandemic put in perspective the idea that the current model is sustainable and profitable as long as everything is going smoothly. Should something change, clubs would be facing disaster, FC Barcelona and their 1.2 Billion debt is a clear example. It made it possible that we might see a giant team collapse.

A Serious Issue With UEFA

There might be something under the nerves of the biggest clubs in Europe, which is the way money is distributed amongst participants in club tournaments. The UCL for example, the entire income is put into a big pot handled by UEFA, paying salaries, put into the association's bank account, and also distributed amongst the participants equally. Minus few variables, a team like Barcelona would be making the same amount of money as Ferencvárosi TC, a club you need to google to just know where they are based if the two clubs bring in similar results.

It may look fair, after all, they are the same results. However, the worldwide audience isn't watching the UCL for Ferencvárosi TC. The advertisers aren't paying the big money for the likes of Ferencvárosi TC, the broadcasting channels aren't paying for those games. Most people are paying for the likes of Real Madrid, Barcelona, Liverpool, and few others. Most of the teams that are bringing in the views for the UCL or the UEL are the 12 teams that started the ESL.

The ESL clubs' point of view suggests they deserve a bigger share of the income since they are the main attraction, other teams are variables that viewership, advertisement, and broadcasting wise make little to no difference. The ESL clubs want a bigger share of the pie as well as a share of the money going to the UEFA bank account. The clubs even have in mind that there's summer with tons of transfers that need to be made for the future of the clubs.

Investing In The Past

There's no hiding from this reason, some teams lost their spark. Coming from an Arsenal fan, the team isn't what it used to be. Spurs aren't stable in Europe, not to mention the league. I can't remember the last time I saw AC Milan in the UCL. This reason doesn't apply to all obviously, as some clubs just know they will remain on top or near it.

Such teams are noticing trends of other teams' projects overtaking theirs. There's Atalanta in Italy, and the PL's "Top 4" has been rebranded "Top 6" With Arsenal and Spurs. And with projects like Leicester, Everton, and Wolves, we might soon see a "Top 9". AC Milan needed the aid of a 39 years old Ibrahimovic in order to get back to Europe. Some teams are simply slipping down.

The ESL teams like Arsenal, and AC Milan built a dynasty on two things popularity and trophies. Currently, neither are as popular as they used to be, and aren't in a favorable place to win a title any time soon. Therefore, they decided to do what I'd call investing in the past in order to save the heritage they have as they are about to miss the train of success, either for management or financial reasons.

That marks the end of the why.

Why Are There People Against The Idea

I spent the entire day discussing with different people who are against the idea in order to understand the reason it is such an unpopular idea. I read Sir Alex describe it as "The end of football", other big names calling it a betrayal, and many other things. The reasons for so many different strong opinions differ.

First of all, the ESL marks the end of one of the longest tournaments in history and one that is the most prestigious; the UEFA Champions League. The death of such a tournament would be done for mainly 12 clubs only.

Second of all, if the numbers shared online are true, this could also mark the end of local competitions as well. What chances does Everton have when they're facing an Arsenal side that is making 400 million dollars a year? The buying power of the ESL clubs will be enormous, too big for others to compete with. This means that any half-decent player would prefer going there. The difference in wages would be up to tens of millions. Top stars would pick the ESL teams just for the wages. Some might even choose to be an unused sub for Spurs rather than a starter at Bayern just for the wages.

The buying power extends beyond that, it will extend to advertisement and media. The ESL will have the power to buy itself into being the most-watched tournament by a big margin. After all, it is the U.S model. When you think of basketball, for example, you immediately think of the NBA, or it would be at least the first thing you think of. The PL, La Liga, and even the UCL will be seen the same way we view the League Cup or Coupe de France. That would limit the income of many mid to lower teams, which would decrease their investments in projects and youth facilities, could effectively end them.

If you add in the broadcasting rights being sold to the likes of Facebook and Amazon, you are basically talking about the end of entire industries and T.V channels such as Sky Sport and Bein Sport. You could kill the investments in other tournaments effectively ending them.

The Traps That Could Kill the ESL

There are few things that could make the ESL a short-lived success.

The NBA Model

It could take one google search to see that the NBA has been declining in viewership. The number of people interested in the NBA is decreasing, baseball in America had a similar trajectory. In fact, the newly found interest in the MLS and the rise of American football talents is the main benefactor of such decline. Some people love attributing it to racism or misguided ways to fight racism. But in my opinion, that is more of a PR move.

The reason for that is that it is a closed tournament, it has no new teams, few new faces. There's no Leicester miracle possible in the NBA. It is always the same.

It Gets Boring

Let's talk about the historic North London derby. It is a game we watch. So let's put in mind that considering the fact that all teams are strong, Arsenal and Spurs would be in the last two spots in their group, wouldn't it sound like a joke when you try to describe that as the "North London Derby" and get people excited for it. Think about how much the Tyne-Wear derby between Newcastle and Sunderland meant to you in 2015. That would be the same value as the North London Derby.

Yes, you can say that the ESL will have the TOP 20 competing for a title. But in reality, within few years if not one year, it will be big teams, mid teams, and lower teams just like in any league. And take away the prospect of teams getting relegated, mid and lower teams would have no motivation to fight come mid-season. It gets boring.

Football Is Legacy

The ESL has no legacy. We started watching football because of a legacy, our parents told us about Pele and Maradona, it is a cycle. The ESL will be something like the UEFA Nations League, you might vaguely remember who won it but you wouldn't even remember the teams in the semi-final. When you lift a trophy you remember past winners. The ESL has no legacy.

The Power Vacuum

With the departure of the ESL clubs, they're risking a power vacuum effect. Local fans will still want to support a club playing in the local league even if their favorite club leaves. People in London will still look to attend and support clubs in London even after Chelsea, Arsenal, and Spurs leave. This leaves a place for West Ham to fill in the powerful role the previous three held, increasing its popularity. Apply this to the many places a power vacuum is left and soon enough we will have a new Top 20 looking to create their own super league.

Those are the three traps in which the ESL clubs could fall.

FIFA And UEFA Reaction

There are many ways, Fifa, Uefa, and the FAs in the ESL clubs leagues could react that could harm the ESL clubs. The possibility of the ESL clubs getting kicked out of the league. Another is the possibility of banning the ESL players from its competitions. They could also ban the players from transferring to clubs outside the ESL.

The unity of the different FAs, their coordination with Fifa and Uefa could break or make the ESL, the severity and flexibility could also be a deciding factor.

Verdict

When we talk about an amount such as 4 billion dollars being up for grab with no details explaining it, a timeline such as "as soon as possible", and many other missing details lead me to believe that yesterday's announcement was that of pressure. The ESL 12 clubs made it clear that they are willing to negotiate.

There are terms that I could see open to be discussed, a bigger share of the clubs' competitions and even that of national teams since much of its popularity has to do with the names of players who became household names playing for these clubs.

Another thing is invitational UCL participation, we saw how missing a year of the champions league leads to a downward spiral as it with Manchester United, Arsenal, and AC Milan. There are many examples that come to mind, but the point will always be as I mentioned at the beginning; money.

In Summary

The ESL is a financial response to special circumstances as well as accumulative ones. Some of them are trying to use whatever power and popularity they have left to benefit their future. If this goes through, we will be looking at the most competitive tournament, the most exciting as well, at least for a while. The effects of such implementation could affect thousands of football clubs and associations.

While I do see aspects in which this would be beneficial and good as a whole for the sport, a sport that could really use some revamping in the way its business is conducted, I still fail to see how the positives could overweigh the negatives. In the end, I hope the announcement of the ESL opens space for a serious line of dialogues regarding improving the game as a whole.