I’ve been following Formula 1 long enough to know that every regulation reset comes with the same promise:
closer racing, new heroes, a fresh start.
And almost every time, that promise turns into something more uncomfortable.

When I look at 2026, I don’t just see opportunity. I see a season where judgement will come fast — and often land on the wrong people.

Why this reset feels different to me

We’ve had regulation changes before, but 2026 feels heavier. This set of rules, isn't an evolution but more a reset of the playing field!
Not because of one rule, but because everything changes at once.

• A completely new car concept.
• A radically different power unit.
• A new balance between electric power, combustion, and energy recovery.

There is no safety net here.

In recent seasons, if a team started poorly, they could claw their way back. Updates, correlation fixes, clever interpretation. In 2026, I’m not sure that luxury exists. If you choose the wrong direction early, you might spend an entire season chasing shadows.

And when that happens, history tells us something uncomfortable: drivers pay the price first. I never did see an engineer gave on interview on Sunday after the race, that the did miss the ball completely.

Success can be a trap — and McLaren knows it

This is where my doubts about McLaren come in.
They are coming off a period of success, and that success has consequences. Reduced wind tunnel time is supposed to keep things fair, but under a full regulation reset, it becomes a gamble.

Less wind tunnel time means fewer chances to ask fundamental questions (only 70%). And in a year where fundamentals matter more than fine details, that worries me.

If McLaren gets the concept slightly wrong, there’s no quick fix. No clever workaround. Just a long season of damage control. And again, when the car underperforms, nobody asks how many hours were available in the tunnel. They ask why the drivers “aren’t delivering”.

That’s not a comfortable position to be in.

Starting late might actually be starting ahead

Then there’s Cadillac.
Normally, a new team entering Formula 1 is an easy prediction: back of the grid, learning year, survival mode.
But I’m not convinced that logic applies in 2026.

While existing teams had to split focus — keeping the 2025 car competitive while preparing for a radical future — Cadillac had one job. One target. One set of rules.

• No legacy concepts.
• No compromises.
• No short-term distractions.

That doesn’t guarantee success, but it does change the equation. In a season where everyone is guessing, being able to guess earlier and commit fully might matter more than experience.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Cadillac surprises people — not at the front, but certainly not where many expect them to be.

Talent still matters — but not equally

Of course, talent doesn’t disappear overnight. Drivers like Max Verstappen have proven that they can extract more from a car than most. Sometimes it feels like he’s driving beyond the theoretical limit of the machine.

But that’s exactly why using him as a benchmark is dangerous. He’s the exception, not the rule.

Most drivers, even very capable ones, are bound by the car beneath them. In 2026, that car might be unstable, inconsistent, or fundamentally flawed. No amount of skill can fully compensate for that.

Yet the comparison will still happen. And careers can shift based on the wrong conclusions. Sometimes the feeling of a car suits the driving style of a driver better than his teammate, which could be career ending in some situations.

AI makes everything faster — including mistakes

Don't think that AI will design the car but it will have influence on the setups and stuff like that.
One thing that doesn’t get enough attention in public discussions is how much teams now rely on AI-driven systems. AI helps teams explore design spaces, optimise setups, and correlate simulation with reality. In theory, that should reduce mistakes.

But I keep coming back to one concern: AI doesn’t challenge assumptions. It amplifies them.

If the initial concept is wrong, AI doesn’t correct it, it perfects it. That makes it harder to admit mistakes and even harder to escape them.

In a regulation reset like 2026, that could be brutal. Teams might realise they’re wrong only when it’s already too late. And again, the driver becomes the visible problem.

What worries me most about 2026

I don’t think 2026 will simply reshuffle the grid. I think it will distort reputations.

Some drivers will struggle through no fault of their own. Others will look brilliant because their team guessed right early.
And the narrative will be simple, as it always is: form, pressure, talent.

But the reality will be far more complex.

Final thought

I’m genuinely excited about 2026. But I’m also cautious.

Because seasons like this tend to punish the wrong people and reward the right decisions rather than the best performances.

Question?

If a driver struggles in 2026, how much blame should actually go to them?

Only a few weekfs before the first tests, that will give some insights.

Cheers,
Peter