We had a really exciting UCL matchday last week and I hope this week to be the same! This week we will have the following matches:
• Atlético Madrid vs Chelsea FC
• SS Lazio vs FC Bayern Munchen
• Atalanta BC vs Real Madrid CF
• Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Manchester City
I'll start with my analysis and predictions.
Atlético Madrid vs Chelsea FC
Atlético without any doubt has been the best team in La Liga this season. Top of the table (with a game in hand), most wins, fewest losses and joint team with fewest goals received. Anyways even if we thought that Atleti would run away with the title seeing how both FC Barcelona and Real Madrid started the season, lately they had a patch of bad form losing their second match of the season against Levante and drawing another game against Levante and Celta in their last five. Now with a game in hand they sit only three points above Real Madrid.
Chelsea on the other hand are underperforming seeing how high the expectations were for them after their summer transfer window where they signed a lot of high profile players like Thiago Silva, Werner, Ziyech, Chilwell and Havertz. Nevertheless Frank Lampard couldn't find a gameplan to fit all of those signings and he was sacked and replaced by Tuchel. The german is still unbeaten after managing 7 matches as Chelsea manager with 5 wins and 2 draws, the latest coming on Saturday against Southampton. Tuchel is still adapting to this squad and trying to find the best way to play with this group of players.
Because of that, and because I think Simeone's gameplan would nullify what Tuchel has showed us as Chelsea manager I think Atlético would qualify to the next round as Atlético is really solid defensively.
So, I say that Atlético is at 65% and Chelsea at 35%.
SS Lazio vs Bayern Munich
On paper everyone would think that Bayern would win this easily but in reality Bayern hasn't been that unstopable team we saw last season under Flick. Flick lost his first game as Bayern manager this season against Hoffenheim. And this season they have lost two more against Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach. On comparison, Flick last season didn't lost a match managing Bayern. He managed 30, drew 1 and won 29, and won a treble.
Althought this season they completed the sextuple winning Club World Cup, DFL Supercup and European Supercup they have looked a bit shaky on defence(conceding 31 goals in the league, in comparison second place Leipzig have conceded 18), partly due to David Alaba's form. They also lost some key players of due to injuries (Goretzka, Gnabry and Kimmich), transferred out (Thiago to Liverpool) or COVID-19 (Müller and Pavard). Fatigue after playing until late August could be a factor to this drop off in form, too.
Lazio since football came back were one of the teams that lost their momentum. Until March they looked like title contenders, when football in June came back they lost 6 of the 12 matches they played and four against their contenders for European spots Napoli, Atalanta, Juve and Milan. That level they had until March wasn't equaled on this season neither, they actually are fifth tied on points with Atalanta but losing on goal difference.
So then, Bayern is by far the superior team but I think Lazio has a more than good enough team to surprise them and capitalize that weaknesses. And with Müller and Pavard out for the first leg the surprise is more likely, in my opinion. Without Müller they lost against Frankfurt, he is the most important player of that squad.
Anyways I don't think that will happen due to Lewandowski good form. So Bayern 65% and Lazio 35%.
Atalanta BC vs Real Madrid CF
Atalanta last season surprised all of us after being minutes away from reaching the semifinal of the UCL. They're a wonderful team and are loyal to Gasperini's style and gameplan, having excellent matches against PSG last season (before PSG comeback) or against the best teams in Italy. Yesterday they won 4-2 against Napoli.
Anyways they have a problem: their style is so demanding physically, and at the end of last season, they could have finished higher or even fight for the title against Juventus and at the end they couldn't cope with the fatigue.
Real Madrid although they're 2nd in the league 3 points behind city rivals Atleti, they have a big big problem. They have an enormous injury list on key players and not so key players but are part of the squad. They're without Ramos, Militao, Marcelo, Carvajal, Odriozola, Valverde, Hazard, Rodrygo and his top scorer Benzema.
In the last few matches just to complete the bench they had to fill the call up with Real Madrid Castilla players, like Arribas, Altube, Marvin Park or Hugo Duro.
Atalanta on the other hand lost Papu Gómez to Sevilla after differences with Gasperini but they have been fine without him. Also they're missing wingback Hans Hateboer who could be a more sensible miss.
Without key players like Ramos, Benzema and Carvajal and having to play the same players every match due to that thin squad I think they couldn't cope with the fatigue and wouldn't advance.
Also, without Ramos (out for the second leg of the last two CL RO16 matches for Madrid due) Madrid got knocked out twice against Ajax and Manchester City. Madrid miss a lot his leadership.
So, I think Atalanta will qualify and I give them a 60% due to the good form of players like Muriel, Romero and Gosens and Madrid a 40%.
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Manchester City
Manchester City is the most in form team in the world, winning their last 18 matches (a record on top flight English football) in all competitions scoring 47 goals and conceding only six. Gladbach on the other hand have been on a run of bad form, losing against 14th place Koln and 17th place Mainz and winning only 1 of their last 5, but that could be due to the news of his coach Marco Rose going to Borussia Dortmund.
Gladbach is a really good team anyways, and Marco Rose a great coach. They won against champions of everything Bayern Munich and qualified on the group of death. But they have a problem. They slow their tempo and intensity in the last minutes of the match. That was what happened against Madrid and they got tied at the end. That news of their coach going also wouldn't be that good for a team that isn't that strong mentally.
Guardiola is a manager that likes to experiment a lot and if he doesn't underestimate them and goes with an strange experiment (like Sane as a wingback against Liverpool or Gundogan as a winger against Spurs) I think they would qualify easily. Also because this City team have a defensive solidity the others didn't had due to the addition of Rubén Dias from Benfica.
I give Manchester City an 75% chance of qualify and Borussia Mönchengladbach a 25%.
And what do you think will happen in those matches? Let me know in comments!