The Premier League (and other leagues) have changed the rules regarding 'extra time'.
This means that the extra time added to the end of the game is freer (and more precise) so we can often see more than 10 minutes of extra time at the end of the half. Similar to what we saw at the World Cup.
That's a BIG change from the average 1 minute added in the first half and 3 minutes added late in the game. For example, Brentford Vs Spurs had 14 minutes of injury time in the first half. Either way, this is the new normal and as football traders we always have to wonder how this could affect the market going forward. I think this new "unpredictability" could create a small opportunity for us.
According to the bets, they have not yet taken into account the extra time of football matches. The markets stay the same (so far) but something interesting happens around the 89th minute.
Prices in the current Unders market tend to become static, then if a large amount of time is added to this price, they will remain static or even drift. (Anything above 5+ seems to make a difference) I have seen the price reach 1.25 in the 90th minute and even drift as far as 1.40 in certain situations.
In Spurs' first half against Brentford, the ratio dropped to 1.25 and rose to 1.36 after extra time was announced. So a low-risk strategy might be to go under at 45 or 90 minutes if you are planning a lot of overtime.
This is a low risk high reward because the price probably won't move much against you in the meantime, so it can drift and you can make a profit. Or even better, a target can fly while you wait and you instantly win your entire bet.
If you're chasing a late goal, technically you now have MUCH more time to complete that late goal, which technically offers more value. Eventually, the market will adjust and adapt, but it seems (for now) the market doesn't know how to handle this new rule change. Spurs-Brentford had 14 minutes of injury time in the first half but only 4 minutes of injury time at half-time.
In this case, the price moves normally only on the 90th minute. Similar to the Chelsea-Liverpool match, there were 5 minutes of stoppage time at the end of the match.
There is no significant difference in the lower price but it remains static for a minute or two around the price of 1.19. Anyway, there is currently a bit of low-risk opening up late in the game that we can take advantage of for the time being.
A good time for people like me who love to capitalize on late goals and wonder if we'll be able to track an increase in late goals this season? One to see for sure.