Nobody in this footballing world won't agree that Argentina is one of the favorites to win this current edition of the World Cup. Their unbeaten 36-match run, Copa America 2021, Finalissima 2022 Trophy, and having Lionel Messi, arguably one of the greatest footballer we have ever seen are the reasons why they are the tournament favorites.
As presented by Opta, a data provider who has detailed records of on-ball football events, predicted in their Artificial Intelligence(AI) that Argentina has 12.6% chance of winning the world cup, higher than France (12.2%) and behind Brazil (15.8%). ESPN also predicted that the La Albiceleste (ARG) will win the World Cup, a prediction that they have been very successful through the editions of the world cup (2010, 2014, & 2018). Their solid proof to solidify this prediction is probably Argentina's recent tournament wins & their 36-match unbeaten run.
But it fell, it fell heavily on one of the most crucial matches Argentina has to win - the World Cup group stage. The 51st ranked Saudi Arabia pulled off a 2nd-half onslaught upset against the tournament favorites! This sparked the whole footballing universe. One of the greatest upsets in the history of football, indeed.
Digging the Reason Behind this Upset
Argentina suffers their first defeat after 37 matches, 1-2 against Saudi Arabia, photo from Telegraph UK
The uncounted goals due to offside was never the reason behind this defeat. Once an offside will always be an offside, it's so hard to make this is a reason because this is fair to all of the participating teams. The new goal-line technology provides a better aid to cure the accuracy of the calls and Argentina is the first victim of that. Like I said, they should scrap off offside calls as the reason for this defeat.
I watched the whole match with utter disappointment. In fact, the match should've been 2-0 because there should be no penalty on Paredes - it was just acting. Overall, they were carried by the high-pressure and intense defense by the hungrier Arabians. It didn't break down, their energy didn't fade until the final whistle. Even if you watched the replay, the intensity and passion to put pressure on the defense paid off.
If you look closely on how Argentina played this match, you can tell that they are overlooking things. They were carried by overconfidence, carried by paranoia of the media attention they're getting? Also, there was no intense connection between the defense and the midfield. They were just backpasses after backpasses. The only thing that were very effective on this match are long-ball assists and passes on the wing. The midfield build up was broken and was perfectly controlled by Saudi Arabia. They were able to control the passing lanes, their high-press, intense defense blocked possible build up from defense-midfield-attack. Messi has been very silent too, he was heavily marked and when he receives the ball, at least 3 players are approaching onto him - forcing him to back pass.
The first goal was an error on the defense part but it started with Messi losing the ball. He was too clumsy to give up that easy pass. But what's even worse was the actions of Christian Romero. An easy pass that he didn't intercept, making the ball go forward and Saleh Alshehri didn't miss the change - the ball escaped below Romero's tackle and Emiliano Martinez was not able to reach that corner goal. That second goal was another defensive collapse again - which was another heavy problem Argentina has been facing in their World Cup matches.
Messi's disappointing look, but has shown very clumsy during the match, consistently walking and did not help defending, photo courtesy of Yahoo news
What's even disappointing for me was the actions of Lionel Messi. He was nowhere to be found. The star of football was shutdown. He couldn't hold the captain's promise. He was conserving energy, consistently walking, just looking at his teammates fighting for the ball, and when he was needed the most in the final minutes, he's been losing touches.
I have been a Lionel Messi fan since 2010 and believe me, this is the worst match I've seen of him. I can tell that this isn't the Messi that captained Argentina to win the Copa America & Finalissima. Of course, it's very easy to criticize when the team stumbles but this is reality. Messi was inefficient today and he's been a liability so far having a rating of 5.0, one of the lowest ratings of his career.
The Odds
This may have been one of the statistically impossible to happen in football because Argentina has been very dangerous in their previous fixtures and friendlies. In fact, they're #3 in the World ranking. They have quality players playing elite European level and they are only facing players that are playing in their domestic league. In fact, Saudi Arabia's goalkeeper Al Owais is a 2nd choice keeper. So by looking at those information alone tells you this is a clear disappointment of statistics but a proof that no matter how small your chance are (even 0.00000001%) is still a chance of winning and as hard to believe as it seems, a chance is a chance.
Looking at the odds, gamblers also rejoice this victory. Thirteen + (13+) odds are favoring Saudi Arabia meaning if you bet $1 on the Arabs, you'll get $13+ in winnings. That's too much and can even make you a fortune. If you bet $1000, you'll get $13,000 in return - that's around 40,000 Hive Power (lol).
This is one of the things that makes football beautiful. South Korea has done that against Germany in 2018, the biggest upset eliminating Germany to qualify in the knockout stage. Now, Saudi Arabia pulls another upset in the history of football. Imagine being an Arab, the joy of winning is so sweet this time.
Can we see more upsets in the next World Cup matches? For now, let's enjoy watch World Cup football, because it will only last in a month :)
Sources:
- dailymail - for player ratings
- Fifa ranking - for Argentina & Saudi Arabia's current world cup ranking
- Wikipedia - for knowing what the team also known as (La Albiceleste)
- BBC - for the countries % chances of winning World Cup
