TLDR - Whoever wins their last match, they get a huge chance of progressing to the knockout stages.
Creative design thanks to [Canva](canva.com]
This group E currently holds the most exciting fixtures for this current edition of the World Cup as everyone has the chance to qualify to the knockout stages depending on their final game day results. This is the final matches of the Group E:
- Spain vs Japan
- Germany vs Costa Rica
By looking at the current standings, everyone can be knocked out and this is the reason why I label this as "curious case" because these big fishes might fall out while the minnows progress (vice-versa). If Germany and Spain are eliminated, it will surely be a banger to the entire world and to the entire World Cup history.
Match Day 2 as it stands, Spain leading at 4 pts while shockingly, Germany is at the bottom at 1 pt
The are a number of possibilities that might happen after their last match. With Spain being the most comfortable one to progress and Germany in some complex situations and I'd like to discuss that further below - talking about every inch of possibilities how these teams will progress.
Spain just Needs a Draw
They only need a draw against Japan to qualify for the knock out stage. But they need to be very careful because Japan needs to win that match for them to be definite in their knockout stage qualification. So with all their might, they will do everything just to force that win against Spain. I will talk more about Japan's future below.
Germany Needs to Win
Will this be the year of silence again for Germany? Photo thanks to Albawaba
Now this is very different because even if Germany wins, there is still a chance that they won't qualify to the KO stages. If they really want to win, they need to beat Costa Rica by a lot of goals (as what Spain did, trashing 7-0). But how can you do that when Japan beaten Germany (2-1) and Costa Rica just defeated Japan (1-nil)? Statistically, Germany is beatable by Costa Rica even more. Currently sitting at -1 goal difference, a huge banger of goals is needed.
A draw/lose will end their journey. They will also need to wait for the results of the Spain and Japan match because if Japan wins against Spain and that at the end of the Match day 3 of the group E, they need to beat that +7 goal difference Spain has. To avoid complexity, Spain needs to defeat Japan and they need to beat Costa Rica - that's the simplest way.
Japan & Costa Rica needs to Win
The easiest way for these two to progress to the KO stage and leave the big fishes behind is to create another miracle. They need to win these big teams, yes I am talking about Spain and Germany who are winners of 2010 and 2014 edition of the World Cup respectively. Also duly take note that:
- Spain is currently #7 in the World
- Germany is currently #11 in the World
As it stands, the current FIFA men's nation ranking from Fifa.com
Compared to Japan and Costa Rica who are currently 24th & 31st, a banger is needed. They need to win. They still have a chance to qualify though if both of them hold a draw against Spain & Germany but one will bid good bye. It will then be determined by virtue of goal difference (not head-to-head match) and it's clear that Japan has the advantage since Spain trashed Costa Rica 7-0.
To avoid these complexity, a win is needed. For Spain, they only need a draw. For Germany, the must win and that is the only option for them + if Spain vs Japan draw, they need to have more goal difference than Japan.
If you can see the thrill of this group, then I am with you and I'm honestly anticipating this match days for group E along side with Group C. With Portugal advancing, Argentina needs to win for the world to see more excitement coming. I believe everyone wants to see that Argentina/Portugal match up right?
