I was alarmed when I looked at my stats for the NFL the other day and saw that Carolina, the team I support the most but have absolutely ZERO faith in, was at the top of the list in the NFC South.
Now if you don't want the sport but you do read what I write you probably think "why has this guy been so negative about them if they are in 1st place?" Well there are a lot of reasons why that is the case but it is mostly because Carolina has had an extremely easy schedule thus far and they also won a couple of fluke games. In fact, with those fluke wins they really should have a record of at least 8 wins but they botched games vs teams that on paper are inferior to them but somehow managed to lose.
We only have 4 games left in the regular season so now is when it matter the most as they say. There are zero teams that have clinched a playoff position yet, there's too much that could change between now and then end but it is looking like New England, Denver, and Philadelphia are going to be there unless they majestically screw the pooch between now and the end.
The really great thing about finishing the season in first place is that no matter how shit your division is, and trust me, the NFC South is really, really shit, you get to advance to the playoffs automatically. That is how the playoffs are structured.
Carolina fans are over-celebrating being in first place but the upcoming weekend will be very telling. Carolina is taking on the New Orleans Saints, a team that is 3-10 and has no incentive to even try to win because the playoffs are statistically impossible to reach for them at this point and finishing poorly and getting a better draft pick might be what they are aiming for at this point. If Carolina can't pull off a W against at team in that position, they are well and truly fucked. The bookies do have Carolina favored by 2.5 points so that's a good sign I guess.
The real problems they face is the last 3 weeks of their schedule where they face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers twice and the Seattle Seahawks in between. The Seahawks are tied for first in the NFC West and just like in the NFC South, finishing at the top guarantees a playoff spot. With a record of 10-3 they are most likely going to the playoffs as a wild card anyway, but it always better to get there the guaranteed way and especially to be the number one in the conference you do not have to play in the first week of the playoffs. A rested and uninjured team is a powerful team!
The Tampa Bay side really really wants to destroy Carolina since there is no one team standing in the way of them topping the division. Two losses to Tampa will eliminate the Panthers from guaranteed playoff position unless Tampa somehow manages to lose
agains the Miami Dolphins in between. This season has been so crazy that hell, I suppose that could happen.
It's all kind of moot though anyway because I feel as though if by some magical chance the Panthers did make the playoffs that they would get absolutely embarrassed once they get there. At the moment the statistical (and very speculative) chance of Carolina making the playoffs is 46%, and that is about 45% higher than I would have guessed it to be 10 weeks ago. If they lose to New Orleans this weekend though, that percent drops to 22.