Sometimes you make what seems like an obvious prediction and then some crazy stuff happens. 50% of what I predicted for the WNBA tournament has been wrong and the only things I was correct about was the number 1 and number 2 seeds easily making it out of the first round.
Both the Phoenix Mercury and the Indiana Fever have made it out of the first round when I thought that both teams were going to get easily swept by the New York Liberty and Atlanta Dream, respectively.
It's fun when any tournament has underdogs advance, but this time we had half of them do so. When Indiana defeated Atlanta in the final moments of game 3 to advance, it seemed like a wonderful victory, but it also seemed like that game could have gone either way. It was just very fortunate that the ball ended up where it did in the final moments and that the Atlanta defense made a terrible mistake with just 7 seconds remaining in the game.
Indiana shocked the dozens of people that actually care about the WNBA and advanced to a point where once again, everyone, including me, was saying "well this is where the train stops" as they now had to face the Las Vegas Aces, a team that has the league MVP A’ja Wilson on their squad.
The odds on this game were 8.5 points to Las Vegas with a +333 on the betting lines. Basically, all the professionals in the gambling world were damn certain that Indiana was going to lose this one. I was so convinced of it that I forgot the game was taking place and didn't even watch. I may have missed out on one of the most amazing non Caitlin Clark games of the season as 8-year veteran Kelsey Mitchell went out and scored 34 points, which is the 2nd highest amount of points that anyone has EVER scored in the WNBA playoffs.
I think that as far as Mitchell is concerned, Caitlin Clark riding the bench has been the best thing that ever happened to her career. She was overlooked because Caitlin was the new star and Kelsey rarely saw any game time and when she did, she wasn't the one in charge of the pace. She certainly is now.
What is so amazing about her is that she isn't tall. She is only 5 foot 8 (1.7 meters) and most of the players around her tower over her. This makes scoring even more difficult because the defense always has a great chance of swatting your shot if they are half a foot to a full foot taller than you. Yet, Kelsey makes her way to the basket and works around the defense time and time again.
She isn't alone in the offense either and has plenty of other options when she's got the ball. With Natasha Howard and Aliyah Boston pulling down 11 rebounds each and a combine 18 points, they were certainly a threat on all forward plays. Late addition to the team Odyssey Sims put up an impressive 17 points and 3 steals and this is particularly impressive when you consider that she has only been on the Fever roster for a couple of months.
They may have also identified a massive weakness for the Las Vegas side as well since for most of the game that I saw (after the fact) the Aces were largely dependent upon Wilson for offense. If Indiana is able to follow-up on this and keep A'ja cold, they very well could make this "upset" a regular thing.
Also, it didn't really look like an upset, it was a rout.
By the end of the 1st half Indiana looked like they were comfortable and in control. By the end of the 3rd quarter, it looked like the Aces were demoralized and defeated even though there was another quarter of play to go.
Mitchell was just unstoppable and extremely impressive. No matter who they put on her, including the league MVP, she seemed to find a way around them. The fact that she went 4-6 from 3-point-range means there is no safe place to leave her alone.
Game two also takes place in Vegas and the Aces will be looking for vengeance. Keep in mind that the semi-finals are best-of-five not best-of-seven like the NBA is. If Indiana can pull off another victory in game two, they will almost certainly be able to advance to the final in front of a home crowd since games 3 and 4 are in Indiana.
Something that might be a bit disappointing for fans and the management of the WNBA is that despite the fact that the Fever are the most popular team in the league right now and are making an amazing run in the playoffs that nobody expected, tickets to the game are going for just over $30, and this is with a StubHub markup as well.
As far as game predictions are concerned, I am afraid that even after proving me dead wrong with my predictions, I am still going to keep my pessimism. I fully expect the Fever to be defeated in their next game and I do not think they will advance to the finals.