Back in 2022 I wrote a blog post about why I thought LIV golf would prove detrimental to the chances of those who joined winning a Major (you can read it here).
My basic argument was that LIV players would lose the conditioning required to win a four round competition and that a LIV player was unlikely to win a Major unless it occured in the first couple of years after they join the tour. Koepka and DeChambeau's victories in the 2023 PGA and 2024 US open confirmed LIV players could win a Major. I think that the less favorable part of my prediction is beginning to be borne out and can be demonstrated by the final round of the 2025 PGA which, despite a so-so final round (his worst of the tournament), Scottie Scheffler secured with a five shot victory.
There were sixteen LIV golfers in the opening field. Only eight made the cut. Of these, only three finished with a score below par.
Of the three, Niemann was functionaly out of contention after rounds of 74-67-71, which may have freed him up to play his best round on day four with a 68.
DeChambeau finished in a tie for second, but his 70 was the second worst of his four rounds. Four birdies was a good return, but three bogies reduced their value to also ran status. It's worth considering that had he not bogied the final hole, he'd have had 2nd place all to himself. The other two tied with him were both under par over the back nine; DeChambeau leaked two bogies in those holes.
Finaly we look at Rahm. Over the better part of four days he played wonderful golf and he provided a real challenge for Scheffler in the final round. With two Majors under his belt, a Masters and a US Open, he was toe-to-toe with Scottie's two Masters trophies. But, at the crunch point of the final round, Rahm's play dissolved. Of course, had he not dropped 5 shots in the closing three holes, that wouldn't have put him above Scottie. But being the clubhouse leader at -9 might have put some pressure on the eventual winner. Adding nother birdie in those 3 holes would definitely have forced some careful shot selection by the top player in the final group.
It didn't happen.
So, will a LIV player win a Major? The television pundits were full of assuredness that these players would be there or there abouts for a good while to come. They likely will be. These are great players at the peak of their powers.
But I don't see any of them winning a Major because playing fourteen tournaments of 54 holes does not provide the rigors required. They are priming themselves to play a three day game and as time goes by the muscle memory required to compete at the highest level of a four day tournament will continue to diminish.
The question then becomes one of whether LIV launches a 'Major' of their own - how Major it would be without PGA players in the mix would be the main issue - or whether players decide that the chance of golfing glory and greatness outweighs the easier schedule and money. Five times Major champion Koepka may decide that finishing +9 at the PGA and missing the cut in Augusta are things he wasn't anticipating when he made the switch. Possibly Rahm will eye Scheffler's third Major, and wonder what he needs to do to add his own third.
Whatever happens the toughest Major takes place in three weeks at a course already ranked as one of the hardest to play (Cabrera took the '07 US Open here with +5) and is followed by The Open at Portrush a month after. These will further test my hypothesis.
text by stuartcturnbull, image by Heung Soon via Pixabay